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Football Journalist
Saturday 10 February 2024 18:48, UK
Our tipster Jones Knows provides his betting insight and analysis ahead of the Premier League weekend as he hunts down some value in Sky Bet’s markets.
This is a fiddly fixture for Arsenal, fraught with danger.
The 8/15 with Sky Bet for the away win is easily passed up. Not only have West Ham twice played the frustration game on Arsenal this season beating them 2-0 at the Emirates and 3-1 in the Carabao Cup, David Moyes is developing a strong home record against the traditional big-six teams. West Ham have only lost two of their last eight home games against such opposition in the Premier League, including holding the Gunners to 2-2 last April. They can avoid another defeat.
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There are some fancy prices available in the West Ham player shots market with the bookmaker algorithms expecting Arsenal to minimise the Hammers threat. However, the Gunners have shipped 10 shots per game in their away matches this season in all competitions as they do tend to sit a little deeper and allow opposition more of the possession than in their home games. West Ham have also averaged 11.5 shots per 90 in those recent home fixtures against the big six.
It all points to Emerson Palmieri’s lines looking very backable. He’s been tasked with providing the width down the left flank since Lucas Paqueta’s injury. He’s had 10 shots in his last eight starts meaning his odds of Evens with Sky Bet for one or more shots and the 5/1 for two or more are betting angles to seriously consider.
Teams have found a way to stop Aston Villa. Home defeats to both Newcastle and Chelsea had been coming based on some sticky overall performances of late, notably in the 3-2 win over Burnley and draw with Everton. There is a common denominator with Villa’s drop in levels in that Pau Torres has been missing.
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They’ve struggled without his confidence with the ball and leadership without it. Opposition have cut off the supply lines to Douglas Luiz and Boubacar Kamara by pinning them in and allowing Diego Carlos and Clement Lenglet to pass out.
Villa have subsequently made hard work of breaking the lines and moving the ball quickly. When then losing possession, teams have manage to expose Villa down the channels in behind their full-backs. Also, this lack of confidence in their crucial offside trap does make it easier for opposition players to make their runs.
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Torres is key to all of this and his unavailability from the start makes the price for an away win look rather attractive at 21/10 with Sky Bet, especially as in Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho they posses the perfect type of direct wingers to expose Villa’s vulnerability down the flanks. The pair ran riot in the 3-2 comeback win at Old Trafford with Garnacho scoring twice. They can lead United to their fourth straight away win in all competitions. Momentum is building.
The 9/1 with Sky Bet on them making top-four does look a play to consider while you can get it.
Trying to win football matches is hard enough when Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze are unavailable but when you throw Marc Guehi into the injury mix too, Palace are a seriously weakened outfit.
Breaking up the Guehi-Joachim Anderson partnership at the back is likely to make the whole Hodgson masterplan of containment crumble to bits. In 83 Premier League matches with Guehi and Anderson starting, Palace have a very healthy 31.3 per cent win rate. Take one of them out and that win rate drops to 12.5 per cent.
In those 16 games, Palace concede an average of 1.8 goals per 90 and have lost 10 of those fixtures.
Chelsea aren’t exactly reliable but with confidence and spirit soaring after their impressive midweek 3-1 win at Villa, they can make it 12 Premier League wins in a row over Crystal Palace – that would equal the record for successive wins for one team against another in Premier League history.
Rather than back Chelsea at precarious prices though, I’d rather invest in some Enzo Fernandez angles on what should be an evening of Chelsea racking up the shots count trying to pick their way through the Hodgson block. The Argentine should be full of himself, in a good way, following his sumptuous goal at Villa Park.
His raw average of 1.99 shots per 90 in the Premier League is enough on its own to make the 10/11 with Sky Bet on him having two or more shots an appealing wager but when you throw in the likely one-sided game-state along with his increased confidence levels you’ve got yourself a blinding spot of value to attack.
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