Premier League predictions: Sheff Utd to continue 'Great Escape' with Brighton win – Sky Sports
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Football Journalist
Sunday 18 February 2024 11:53, UK
Our tipster Jones Knows sprinkles his analysis and betting advice across an exciting Premier League weekend, tipping Sheffield United to surprise Brighton.
Sheffield United have conceded 10 goals in their last two home games – five of those to Brighton in the FA Cup. They have conceded goals at an unparalleled rate this season – their record currently stands at 60 conceded, the most by any team at this stage of a Premier League season. That average of 2.5 goals conceded per game means they are on course to concede 95 goals this season which would be a new Premier League record in a 38-game season.
But here’s the plot twist: I’m keen on them to get a result here at 11/8 with Sky Bet.
Brighton, who have kept just two clean sheets in the Premier League this season, are just too short. It’s now just four wins from their last 18 Premier League games and they’ve won just one of their last six Premier League games against teams starting the day in the relegation places, conceding 15 goals. There the 1-1 with the Blades amongst that run, too.
This isn’t the Brighton of last season where their attacking output was up there with Manchester City’s – it’s dropped like a stone and their defensive process is taking a hit too. Even in that 5-2 win over the Blades in the FA Cup, Brighton lost the non-penalty expected goals count 1.02 vs 2.28. I wouldn’t put you off the upset.
It’s very difficult to back against Manchester United in these types of matches when you consider their near-perfect record away from home against teams that finished in the bottom 11 places of the Premier League last season or are predicted to be there this season. Since the start of last season, they have taken 40 points from 48 available against such opposition and conceded just eight goals in those 16 matches.
It’s rarely pretty on the eye or convincing, though, meaning Luton are fancied to cause United problems with their unique style. We can profit from this by heading to the corner markets. Rob Edwards’ team look a fantastic bet to win more corners than United at a juicy 11/8 with Sky Bet.
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Regular readers will know all about how the Luton corner lines have spiked recently to the extent that they’ve won more corners than the opposition in seven of their last eight matches across all competitions. The aggregate corner count over those fixtures reads Luton 64-29 Opposition. A pummelling.
United’s low corner count in away fixtures against bottom-half teams also offers further confidence behind a Luton corner win. In their last 15 matches against bottom-half teams on the road, United have won just four of the corner counts with the aggregate score reading Man Utd 64-88 Opposition. They’ve also only won six or more corners in just two of those 15 fixtures. The lines look all wrong, so there’s huge value to be had backing Luton to win the corner count.
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At the time of writing, there’s so many unknowns regarding Crystal Palace’s team news and managerial situation. That makes putting together a sensible and measured prediction almost impossible. If the likes of Marc Guehi, Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze are all out and the manager situation remains up in the air, Everton should be taking advantage at 7/10 with Sky Bet for the home win but if an announcement comes that ex-Eintracht Frankfurt boss Oliver Glasner taking over, as reported by Sky in Germany, then it changes everything. Unless the picture becomes clearer, I’ll be sitting it out.
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