Premier League predictions: Liverpool to misfire at West Ham, Burnley to get thumped by Man Utd – Sky Sports
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Football Journalist
Thursday 25 April 2024 17:42, UK
Our tipster Jones Knows is back in the predictions chair to provide his betting insights and analysis across another exciting Premier League card.
Liverpool have only scored six goals in their last six matches across all competitions to a backdrop of 12.2 worth of non-penalty expected goals and 113 shots. It’s a miserable underperformance.
Darwin Nunez and Mohamed Salah must take responsibility. Nunez is the definition of wasteful and Salah just clearly isn’t fully fit. Combined, they have passed up 4.47 worth of non-penalty expected goals between them – that’s 36 per cent of the total outlay. And, of course, they both failed to score from open play during that run with Salah’s two goals in that period coming from the penalty spot.
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Against Fulham when Nunez and Salah were both dropped, Liverpool scored three times from an expected goals tally of just 1.04. Jurgen Klopp’s persistence with the pair has probably cost Liverpool a shot at the title. I wouldn’t be going anywhere near the 1/2 with Sky Bet for the away win if both Nunez and Salah start that’s for sure.
With West Ham’s current malaise and David Moyes seemingly set for the boot, added to Liverpool’s season being all but done with, this game might drift into a low-key spectacle.
This means the under cards line is a runner. Past meetings point to that anyway with just seven yellow cards being shown in the last five Premier League games between the two – it’s officially the tamest fixtures of all Premier League fixtures to have been played at least five times since the start of the 21/22 season. In that case, no cards being shown, accessible in the first player to be carded market, is a huge runner at 22/1 with Sky Bet.
A wise old man told me not to overcomplicate betting and “just back the form horse” – it’s hardly led to riches being made on my part but it’s always something bouncing around in my brain when tasked with decision making in this game.
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Crystal Palace are the form horse. So, we should back them, especially priced up as the outsiders in this contest with 5/2 with Sky Bet on offer for the away win. They have put in three very impressive wins together under Oliver Glasner, beating Liverpool, West Ham and Newcastle.
The midfield has a sumptuous balance to it and their forward line is purring right now. Fulham do have a fine home record but they’ve lost their last two at Craven Cottage and don’t carry anywhere near the level of attacking threat as Palace. Away win.
Vincent Kompany did promise us that Burnley would grow as the season progresses – and he’s being proved very right.
Just one defeat in their last seven, picking up 10 points along the way has given them a squeak of surviving. You can get 6/1 for them to stay up which outlines the task facing them – but they’ve got hope.
They’re going to need to score at least twice to win this one though as Burnley just don’t do clean sheets – it’s now 16 games without one and just two all season.
United’s dangerous attack has scored more than twice in 14 of their last 18 games across all competitions averaging a total of 2.38 goals scored per 90 minutes. Burnley know wins are required so this risk-reward nature means Manchester United could run riot in the final third and the 6/5 with Sky Bet on them scoring three or more goals in the game looks a potential winner in waiting.
Backing Sheffield United goals might just be a profitable trend to follow in the next few weeks.
There has been more intensity and threat to their play under Chris Wilder, who is playing with the handbrake off a little more. If you’re going to concede anyway, you might as well at least fight fire with fire.
They’ve scored at least once in six of their last seven matches, scoring 11 goals in total.
I’ve got no faith in Sheffield United in the outright market where Newcastle are rightly 2/9 for the home win with Sky Bet but Wilder’s men can certainly make this a goal-heavy game.
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Newcastle remain vulnerable defensively and have conceded two or more goals in 14 of their last 25 fixtures across all competitions, while Sheffield United have scored two or more in 10 of their last 18 games across all competitions, including scoring twice against Manchester United, Chelsea, Fulham and Bournemouth of late. They are 3/1 with Sky Bet to score two or more goals again – and that looks a tasty price.
The time really is now for Luton.
Games are running out to turn their quite horrendous run of form around. It’s now just two wins in their last 16 Premier League games – that’s relegation fodder. They are 5/2 with Sky Bet for the away win which is much shorter than I anticipated. If Matheus Cunha is fit to start for Wolves, the Evens for a home win will surely disappear. That looks a big price.
You can always guarantee fouls when Wolves and Luton are involved. Only Bournemouth have made more fouls this season than Gary O’Neil’s team (422) while since Rob Edwards flipped Luton’s style in December, no team has been fouled as many times as them. They have won 261 fouls across their last 21 Premier League matches.
This means Wolves’ players are of interest in the fouls committed market and Max Kilman rates as a decent wager to make two or more fouls at 5/2 with Sky Bet considering he’ll be tasked with engaging Carlton Morris. The Luton striker has drawn 19 fouls in his last 15 Premier League games playing as the focal point up top.
Sean Dyche is a very streaky manager. Once his teams are in a rut, they are in a rut but once in a good moment they can rack up lots of points and win games in a short space of time.
Remember that run mid-season where they won 10 of their 14 games across all competitions? It shows that momentum is so key when playing Dyche’s style of football. That can be seen when they concede the first goal – which has happened 16 times this season in the Premier League, they’ve failed to win any of them and lost 13 times, recovering just four points from losing positions.
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However, after back-to-back wins, all is rosy. Dyche’s football has gone from being painstaking and one-dimensional to tubthumping and dangerous. They look fair enough at 7/5 with Sky Bet to make it three wins on the spin.
I’ll most certainly be backing Dwight McNeil to play a part for Everton with his shots and goals prices very appealing with Sky Bet.
He’s played a little more centrally in recent weeks, linking off Dominic Calvert-Lewin and isn’t afraid to test the goalkeeper from range. He scored in the 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest and has had 19 shots in his last seven appearances, hitting the target with his last three. That means his 4/5 price for at least one shot on target is dripping with value as is the 5/1 anytime goalscorer price.
For a team that has only won six of their 19 matches away from Stamford Bridge this season, quotes of them at 2/1 with Sky Bet to beat a team like Aston Villa who are on course for a top-four finish and potential European silverware are a bit bonkers. This Chelsea team in question have also just produced a ‘throw in the towel’ type performance at Arsenal where they looked a team wanting the season to end. It’s not hard to make a very strong case to back Aston Villa to win this game at 23/20 with Sky Bet.
They’ve won 20 of their 34 Premier League games this season and only in December put together a 15-game winning run at Villa Park.
They are a proper side. Chelsea are not. Back the home win.
Andoni Iraola’s football is all about energy off the ball. It makes Bournemouth a fantastic team to watch as their hybrid pressing system is very hard for opposition teams to play through. Brighton found that out in the reverse fixture when struggling for 45 minutes until coming through to win the game in the second half.
That is the downside to Iraola’s football in that it isn’t sustainable to play that way for 90 minutes. His side have dropped 27 points from winning positions this season – only Brentford (30) dropped more – and they were fortunate that Wolves didn’t grab a late equaliser on Wednesday after tiring badly late on. It’s a common theme.
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I can see a similar match scenario here so I’ve headed to the half-time/full-time market to try and profit from Bournemouth’s slight weakness at holding onto leads. You can get 12/1 with Sky Bet on Bournemouth/Draw and 22/1 on Bournemouth/Brighton.
Tottenham’s frailties out of possession could just get exposed in a big way by Arsenal, who might just be charging towards a Premier League title.
Mikel Arteta’s men are becoming very trustworthy away from home – they have the best away record in the Premier League this season – winning the most points (36), scoring the most goals (39) and conceding the fewest goals (11). At 4/5 with Sky Bet for the away win, I can totally see why they’d be a popular bet.
My eyes have been drawn to Declan Rice’s shots prices.
He is becoming a monster in this Arsenal side, playing in a more advanced role from the left side of the midfield – a position which suits his all-action style. His power tore Chelsea apart in transition on Tuesday night and he’ll be making those same direct runs past a Tottenham midfield that gives you space to do that. Rice has had 22 shots in his last 10 starts across all competitions – his influence in the final third is increasing. This makes the 10/11 with Sky Bet for him to have two or more shots one of the best bets of the weekend card.
At this stage of the season with big stakes on the line, cynical fouling is rife.
And there are fewer better than this art than Rodri, who looks a fine price at 7/2 with Sky Bet to be carded at the City Ground. The Spaniard has been in carded in five of his away games in the Premier League this season.
Also, the last meeting between these two was an ill-tempered 2-0 win for City over Nottingham Forest at the Etihad Stadium, where Rodri was sent off 27 seconds into the second half after an inexplicable decision to shove Morgan Gibbs-White near his neck. The pair are set to renew that potential spiky relationship in this one and Gibbs-White has managed to draw 14 yellow cards off the opposition since the start of last season. Rodri may get lured in again.
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