Premier League predictions: Awesome Arsenal defence to shut out Brighton, Liverpool to thrash Man Utd – Sky Sports
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Football Journalist
Friday 5 April 2024 16:26, UK
Jones Knows sprinkles his betting insight and analysis on the weekend’s Premier League action, where he foresees another Arsenal win to nil.
The return of Jack Grealish for Manchester City is a welcome sight for punters who like to dabble in the fouls markets. That is especially relevant for this encounter where the two most fouled players in the Premier League since the start of last season, Grealish (3.49 fouls won per 90) and Jordan Ayew (3.17) are in action.
The total match fouls line has been set at 23 or more by Sky Bet and that looks generous based on the numbers. It’s a bet that would have landed in the last four matches under Oliver Glasner with an average of 27 fouls per match as the new Palace boss has tried to make his boys more aggressive and less passive without the ball.
In a game that should see City extend their unbeaten 24-game run with a victory, the fouls angle makes significant appeal.
Can you smell that? It’s bad blood.
It royally kicked off in the reverse fixture in December – with 10 yellow cards and two reds shown. No Premier League game has produced more booking points this season – plus, both Unai Emery and Thomas Frank were booked which doesn’t count towards the total.
Villa have been shown 81 yellow cards this season – only Chelsea and Sheffield United have been shown more – while since Ivan Toney returned, Brentford’s per game yellow average is spiking, especially away from home.
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No team have been shown more yellows on the road since January 30 with 20 cards flashed in their direction.
All this equates to the 50+ booking points price at 5/6 with Sky Bet rating as a slice of value – as do the higher lines like 80+ at 4/1.
Everton have not won a Premier League game since beating Burnley in the reverse fixture at Turf Moor – 13 games ago.
They are 8/13 with Sky Bet to end that losing run – it’s a price that should land as this is a perfect match-up for Everton, who will outmuscle and outpower Burnley from set-pieces. No team have created more expected goals from such situations this season than Sean Dyche’s men – recording 15.85 on that metric backed up by their haul of scoring 15 goals too. Only Arsenal have scored more (18).
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And they face a Burnley team who simply suck at defending set-pieces. Rayan Ait-Nouri’s goal in the 1-1 draw with Wolves – a free header from 12 yards out – was their 16th goal conceded from such methods of attack. Two of those goals came in that 2-0 win for Everton in December, meaning James Tarkowski (22/1 with Sky Bet) and Ben Godfrey (33/1 with Sky Bet) are obvious big-price runners in the first goalscorer market.
Fulham’s defiance of their woeful defensive metrics continues to frazzle my brain – somehow Marco Silva’s football manages to keep them very stable in mid-table. Since the start of last season they have averaged 1.73 worth of expected goals against per 90, showcasing the level of high quality chances they offer up on a consistent basis.
Only Luton (1.93), Sheffield United (2.03) and relegated Leeds (1.76) have posted worse figures per 90 in that period.
Yet, Silva’s team have conceded just 15 goals at home this season – only Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City have conceded fewer. It makes little sense.
I’m a sucker and huge believer in the underlying performance metrics for when it comes to making sensible betting picks, so with a dangerous attack like Newcastle arriving, I’m happy to invest in a pro-Toon angle. The standout is Alexander Isak to score at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
The striker, in fine fettle, has 10 goals in his last 13 appearances and has netted in his last four Premier League games.
Of players to have scored at least 20 goals in the Premier League since the start of last season, Isak’s goals per 90 rate is the fourth best of any player at 0.72, while his shot conversion rate of 24.27 per cent is only bettered by Erling Haaland.
He is now averaging a goal every 106 minutes in the Premier League this season, a record that puts him ahead of Haaland and Mohamed Salah as the deadliest forward.
We’re dealing with a world-class finisher here in Isak and the odds-against prices for him to score should be snapped up – as should the 10/1 with Sky Bet for a double.
For all the plaudits and goodwill in their direction, it is now just one win in 13 Premier League matches for Luton, losing seven of their last nine. It would have been nine straight defeats but for two late equalisers vs Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest. They lost both of those games on the expected goals battle too.
Late goals are a great sign of their never-say-die attitude, yes, but performances are on the wane according to the underlying numbers. In their last five games they have averaged just 0.8 worth of expected goals and conceded 2.1 worth of expected goals against. On current form, that type of expected goals difference calculation ranks them as the worst team in the league – by a distance.
And they face a team in Bournemouth, who would be fifth in the Premier League if the season started on October 28. An away win at 17/20 with Sky Bet makes sense.
If you forget about West Ham’s 4-3 defeat to Newcastle, the Hammers are finding consistency and coming to the party in attack at the perfect time of the season. That collapse at St James’ Park is their only defeat in their last six games and the underlying performance metrics are backing up those positive results. In those five matches, their overall expected goals data reads 9.07 for vs 5.79 against. After a season of muddling performance metrics, West Ham are finally becoming quite reliable – especially in attack.
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They have scored 14 goals in their last six Premier League games with Lucas Paqueta, Jarrod Bowen, Mohammed Kudus and Michail Antonio a real foursome to fear. With Pedro Neto injured and Matheus Cunha still easing himself back to fitness, Wolves are not the same proposition in the final third and I’d be surprised if they will be capable of scoring more than once in this encounter. All the evidence makes West Ham an interesting proposition at Evens on the draw no bet market with Sky Bet.
Arsenal winning to nil is a bet always very much on my radar, especially here when you can get 2/1 with Sky Bet.
Their phenomenal defence has now conceded just three goals in their last nine matches and have conceded just a per 90 average of 0.4 worth of expected goals across their last 10 Premier League games. A remarkable number considering they have played Manchester City and Liverpool in that period. One goal is enough to win a game when you have a centre-back pairing in Gabriel and William Saliba that is able to restrict opposition forwards to such low-quality chances.
Brighton aren’t the free scoring side of last season, either. Another blank at Brentford means they have now scored a total of just 19 goals in their last 15 Premier League games and five of those came in that win against Sheffield United, who had 10 players for most of the match. They are the joint-fourth lowest scorers in the Premier League for that period – only Burnley, Sheffield United and Everton have scored fewer.
That makes the 33 per cent implied probability of another win to nil for Arsenal, according to the odds, undervaluing the true probability. The Gunners, since the start of last season, are working at a 53 per cent win to nil ratio away from home in the Premier League. My maths make an Arsenal win to nil about an Even money shot, yet we’re getting 2/1.
It’s a nice edge to attack.
Someone is going to give Manchester United a good spanking before the season is out.
Step forward Liverpool?
United could be without four senior central defenders through injury, meaning Harry Maguire and Willy Kambwala, protected by the clunky Casemiro, could be the resistance United offer up to a Liverpool attack that has scored three or more goals in seven of their last 11 Premier League games. United are heading into battle with a shield made of poppadums and an underlying process which is becoming quite laughable.
They have faced the most shots in the Premier League in 2024 (225) – it’s also the most shots faced of any team in Europe’s major leagues. The corners conceded numbers also remain out of control, shipping 101 in their last 10 Premier League games – again, the most of any Premier League team.
For context, Liverpool have conceded just 34 in their last 11 games. The markets have finally reacted to these numbers with the Liverpool corner line set at eight or more here at 5/4 with Sky Bet which is a little shorter than ideal but still should be a bet that lands in what could be a landslide of an away win.
Sheffield United are a basic Premier League team. However, doing the basics of football right is enough to cause Chelsea’s defence lots of problems.
Ben Brereton Diaz and Oli McBurnie will be roughing up the centre-backs, where fouls conceded against these two remains a betting angle to exploit. Bournemouth duo Chris Mepham and Illia Zabarnyi both made one foul each in that 2-2 draw with Chris Wilder’s men, while Tosin was penalised three times in the 3-3 draw with Fulham and Ibrahima Konate made two fouls on Thursday tasked with facing Brereton Diaz.
So, Chelsea defender Axel Disasi’s prices of one or more fouls at 4/5 with Sky Bet and 4/1 for two or more rate as a juicy bit of value to attack.
Tottenham’s style of football does make them an entertaining watch but from a betting standpoint they remain a team I just simply can’t trust at short prices, such is their vulnerability to being counter-attacked. In the outright market at 4/11 with Sky Bet they are easily swerved against a dangerous, if inconsistent, Nottingham Forest attack.
Goals look the obvious angle of attack based on Tottenham’s games averaging a cool 3.53 goals per game this season.
Both teams have scored in 18 of their last 21 Premier League games, too. That makes the 5/6 with Sky Bet on both teams scoring and the game producing over 2.5 goals look a cracking angle to exploit in a game Forest are taken to make inroads on the counter.
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They surely head to north London full of beans after the way they ripped through Fulham in the first half in midweek, where Morgan Gibbs-White ran the show. His influence can help Forest add to the goalfest and give punters a good run at 9/1 with Sky Bet to win in a game where both teams score.
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