Preview: Uruguay vs. Brazil – prediction, team news, lineups – Sports Mole

A heavyweight South American showdown takes centre stage at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Sunday as Uruguay lock horns with Brazil in the quarter-finals of the 2024 Copa America.
The victors of this mouthwatering contest will face the winners of the last-eight tie between Colombia and Panama in the semi-finals.

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Uruguay have arguably been the standout performers at the Copa America so far this summer after winning three games out of three by an aggregate score of 9-1 to secure top spot in Group C.
La Celeste kick-started the tournament with a 3-1 victory over Panama before putting Bolivia to the sword 5-0 on matchday two; they then preserved their perfect record by beating USA 1-0 on Tuesday courtesy of a 66th-minute strike from Mathias Olivera.
Marcelo Bielsa was banned from the touchline as Uruguay eliminated the host nation, but he will have taken plenty of positives from his side’s impressive group-stage display. The 68-year-old has now won 10 of his 15 games in charge of Uruguay since taking the reins in May last year.
Only holders Argentina have won as many Copa America titles as Uruguay (15), who are bidding to become South American champions for the first time since 2011. La Celeste have progressed to the quarter-finals in three of the last four Copa America tournaments, but on each occasion they have been knocked out, losing to Chile (2015), Peru (2019) and Colombia (2021).
Uruguay have shown that they have the credentials to go all the way this year, though, and can be optimistic of success on Sunday as they secured a 2-0 victory over Brazil in their last competitive meeting in 2026 World Cup qualifying in October last year.
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Brazil have reached the knockout rounds of the Copa America for the third successive tournament, but they missed the chance to secure top spot in Group D after they were held to a 1-1 draw by Colombia, who progressed as group winners at their expense, on Wednesday.
A Selecao made a positive start to the action-packed contest as Raphinha opened the scoring with a superb free kick in the 12th minute. However, Daniel Munoz levelled the scores in first-half stoppage time and Colombia restricted Brazil to only three shots on target as they struggled to find a way past Camilo Vargas‘s goal.
Dorival Junior claimed that ‘Brazil were greatly harmed’ by the officials who decided against awarding his side a penalty. The draw represents one of two in the group stage for Brazil after they played out a 0-0 stalemate with Costa Rica on matchday one, before beating Paraguay 4-1 in their second game.
Although Brazil are yet to lose under Dorival since his arrival as head coach in January, they have now drawn four of their seven international matches and will be keen to quickly rediscover their groove as the endeavour to reach the Copa America semi-finals for the third straight tournament.
After losing out in the 2021 Copa America final, Brazil are seeking to go one better this year and win a 10th South American title, but they must first test their mettle against an in-form Uruguay outfit whom they have beaten nine times in their last 13 meetings across all competitions, scoring at least twice on eight of those occasions.

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Uruguay could be without the services of attacker Maximiliano Araujo, who was stretchered off wearing a neck brace following a nasty collision in Uruguay’s win over USA.
Cristian Olivera came on as his replacement midway through the first half and he would seemingly be the most likely candidate to start on Sunday, joining Facundo Pellistri, Nicolas de la Cruz and Darwin Nunez in attack.
Bielsa is not expected to make any other changes to his first XI, with Federico Valverde and Manuel Ugarte set to continue in midfield as Nahitan Nandez, Ronald Araujo, Oliveira and Matias Vina line up in a four-man defence.
As for Brazil, they will have to ‘learn to play’ without Vinicius Junior, according to Dorival, as the Real Madrid attacker is serving a one-match suspension due to an accumulation of yellow cards.
The absence of Vinicius could open the door for 17-year-old Endrick to start up front, allowing Rodrygo to move onto either flank while Raphinha, Savio, Gabriel Martinelli and Pepe all battle for the final spot in attack.
Left-back Guilherme Arana will be looking to force his way back into the starting lineup at the expense of Wendell, while Douglas Luiz, Andreas Pereira and Ederson are all pushing to start in centre-midfield ahead of Joao Gomes.

Uruguay possible starting lineup:
Rochet; Nandez, R.Araujo, M.Olivera, Vina; Ugarte, Valverde; Pellistri, De la Cruz, C.Olivera; Nunez
Brazil possible starting lineup:
Alisson; Danilo, Militao, Marquinhos, Arana; Guimaraes, Gomes; Raphinha, Paqueta, Rodrygo; Endrick

An entertaining end-to-end contest could be in store considering that eight of the last 10 meetings between these two nations have produced at least three goals.
With Brazil not quite firing on all cylinders and without the presence of Vinicius Junior, there could be an upset on the cards in Las Vegas, with Uruguay’s positive momentum propelling them into the semi-finals.

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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Brazil win with a probability of 44.49%. A win for Uruguay has a probability of 28.99% and a draw has a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brazil win is 0-1 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.92%) and 0-2 (8.18%). The likeliest Uruguay win is 1-0 (8.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.59%).

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