Preview: Poland vs. Netherlands – prediction, team news, lineups – Sports Mole
Getting Group D under way at Euro 2024, Poland and the Netherlands meet at Hamburg’s Volksparkstadion on Sunday.
While the Poles sneaked through to the finals via a tense playoff, their opening opponents qualified comfortably and are now intent on claiming a second European title.
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Arriving in neighbouring Germany on a five-match winning streak, Poland will play their fifth straight major tournament this summer, hoping to progress to the knockout phase despite a tough group-stage draw.
Though those hopes have been hit by Robert Lewandowski‘s recent injury, which leaves the Eagles without their talisman for Sunday’s opener at least, they are riding a wave of momentum.
It could all have been very different, but after the failed experiment of putting Euro 2016 winner Fernando Santos in charge was swiftly curtailed, current coach Michal Probierz was appointed – and to great effect.
Poland only finished third in a weak qualifying group, but beating Estonia and then Wales – the latter by virtue of a dramatic penalty shootout – saw them through the playoffs and into the draw for the finals.
This month, the Eagles reconvened to play two warm-up friendlies, and having seen off 2012 co-hosts Ukraine 3-1 they then went on to beat Turkey 2-1 on Monday – five different players scored, giving hope that Lewandowski’s absence will not prove too harmful.
However, precedent is certainly not on their side; Poland have won just two of 14 matches at the Euros to date, and ahead of their first meeting with the Netherlands at a major tournament, they are winless in 12 games against the Oranje since 1979.
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Now taking part in their 11th European Championship, the Netherlands famously lifted the trophy when UEFA’s main event was last held exclusively in Germany – back in 1988, when Marco van Basten‘s memorable volley helped them to victory in the final.
Only the Germans have reached more semi-finals since then, but the Oranje have not made it to the last four in some 20 years and Ronald Koeman‘s current squad are keen to put that right.
Also faced by favourites France and improving Austria in Group D, their first task will be to successfully negotiate their way to the knockout rounds, and recent results suggest that should be well within their capabilities.
After last week’s 4-0 win over Canada, the Netherlands crushed Iceland by the same scoreline on Monday, having won four of their previous six matches – the only exceptions coming against top-tier opponents, France and Germany.
The Dutch squad, then, will be brimful of confidence for Sunday’s contest in Hamburg, and their lack of a Lewandowski-like striker has not proved a major impediment so far.
Captain Virgil van Dijk scored in both warm-up wins, and he leads a defence stacked with impressive performers; Frenkie de Jong‘s absence in midfield may dent dreams of going all the way, but much is expected of Koeman’s men this summer.
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A large void must be filled in Poland’s front line, as they are without both Robert Lewandowski – the Eagles’ top scorer at the Euros, netting five of their 11 goals to date – and Juventus striker Arkadiusz Milik.
The latter was recently ruled out by a knee problem, continuing an injury-scarred time in his career, while Lewandowski only returned to individual training yesterday and could be involved in next week’s games.
Michal Probierz will therefore have to improvise in the final third, where Karol Swiderski is back to full fitness after an ankle issue and could be used as a ‘false nine’. Alternatively, Adam Buksa or Krzysztof Piatek would offer a more conventional spearhead to the Polish attack.
Several Serie A players will play a part on Sunday: 19-year-old Bologna winger Kacper Urbanski is an outside contender, Hellas Verona defender Pawel Dawidowicz could recover from injury, while Milik’s clubmate Wojciech Szczesny starts in goal.
Another Italy-based star, Inter Milan-bound Piotr Zielinski, pulls the strings in midfield and will take the captain’s armband in Lewandowski’s absence.
Meanwhile, the Netherlands are likely to pick Memphis Depay as their solo striker, with willing runner Wout Weghorst also in contention; Ajax forward Brian Brobbey has failed to shake off a hamstring strain sustained in training last week.
After Frenkie de Jong withdrew from the squad due to an ankle injury – joining Atalanta BC duo Marten De Roon and Teun Koopmeiners on the sidelines – full-back Ian Maatsen was called up as cover; however, either Nathan Ake or Micky van de Ven should start on the left side of defence.
With so many absences in midfield, PSV pair Joey Veerman and Jerdy Schouten could be partnered in the Dutch engine room, with Georginio Wijnaldum consigned to the bench.
Only Portugal’s Bruno Fernandes laid on more assists in Euro 2024 qualifying than Denzel Dumfries (five), and the Inter Milan man is set to feature on the right flank, holding off competition from Bayer Leverkusen’s Jeremie Frimpong.
Poland possible starting lineup:
Szczesny; Bednarek, Salamon, Kiwior; Slisz; Frankowski, Zielinski, Piotrowski, Szymanski, Zalewski; Buksa
Netherlands possible starting lineup:
Verbruggen; Dumfries, Van Dijk, De Vrij, Ake; Schouten, Veerman; Simons, Reijnders, Gakpo; Depay
Both teams’ plans have been undermined by absences, but they cannot afford to feel sorry for themselves, given the quality of their other Group D rivals.
Though lacking a prolific striker, the Netherlands still have potential scorers all over the pitch, so they should make the most of Poland’s injury woes and take three points from their opening match.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
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