As President Bola Tinubu turns one year in office, his Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, shares his thoughts with STEPHEN ANGBULU on the journey so far and what Nigerians should expect in the next one year
What type of economy did the President meet when he assumed office on May 29, 2023?
When the President took over, that year’s budget allocated 97 per cent of our revenue to service debt. So if you’re spending 97 per cent on debt servicing, how much is left? So the government before President Tinubu was borrowing money for recurrent expenditure. Less than N1tn was devoted to capital projects. Nigeria was haemorrhaging heavily.
We also owed the NNPC close to N4tn on subsidy financing. NNPC was the only importer. Other companies were not ready to import because the price was not right. Then, if you look at the exchange, we have multiple windows of exchange, which international agencies such as the World Bank have advised us to address. So, you will find a situation whereby some people close to the former CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele, were collecting money at the official rate and then offloading it in the parallel market and making a humongous profit for doing nothing.
Before Tinubu took over, the government had sold our future by mortgaging our oil to take loans. And oil is our major revenue earner. If you are selling about 40 to 45 per cent of whatever you produce, then you wonder why the inflow from NNPC was drying up. So for years, NNPC was not paying money into the government coffers because we were spending money to take care of the subsidies and so on. It is still affecting us because we’ve already pledged our oil to collect loans all over the place.
So this is the situation that President Bola Tinubu met. Things were bad. Nigeria was bleeding. And it was his duty to stop that bleeding.
From day one, he announced at Eagle Square that “subsidy is gone”. He was not the originator of the abrogation of subsidy. The Buhari government had already put the machinery in place to end fuel subsidy by the end of June. Of course, the nation was already reeling from petrol scarcity and so on. It was thus necessary that the President fast forward the end of subsidy to May instead of June. Four weeks or more would have been very calamitous for this nation’s economy. There would have been no fuel to run the economy.
You must understand that when he came in, he needed to find out where the money was and whether we had money. We had already over-borrowed. Our international rating was bad. So he needed to do certain reforms very quickly so that Nigeria could get its international ratings back, build confidence and be able to secure essential investments from Fitch, Moody’s, and the like.
Nigerians were shocked that he announced the removal of subsidy on fuel when he had not seen any book on the handover, no aides appointed, and no consultation. Why would he do that?
Don’t forget that when the President campaigned, he had a programme of action. So he already had sort of a mini-cabinet before he took the mantle of leadership on May 29. He did not go there alone. He already had a group he was working with.
Some Nigerians think that some ministers are not expected to be members of the cabinet going by their records, especially the former governors who did not perform in their respective states. Do you think they have a point?
First, the President is a politician. So, number one, he needed to bring on board some of his allies who helped him to win the election. It was compensation time, he had to compensate some of them. He needed to also bring in people of talent who are not necessarily politicians who can contribute value to his mandate. I think these are the considerations believing that these people can add value to whatever he’s doing. People who can bring something to the table and contribute to the success of Nigeria.
Even those who had been named for cases of corruption?
These things are speculations. Who did not perform in his state? Is it Governor Badaru who did very well in his State? Was it the Kebbi Governor who also did well and made his state the number one rice grower in this country? Was the minister in question ever indicted? He has not been convicted in any court of law.
The fact that somebody is making accusations against you doesn’t make you a criminal. It is an allegation which needs to be proven. Anybody can say anything. It is the duty of those who are accusing to prove. Everybody being accused is innocent until proven guilty. I think the finger-pointing is misplaced because you need a proper trial before condemning them and saying, yes, they committed an offense. If there’s nothing like that, then there is no point wasting your time.
One year later, has the President done well?
The President would be the first person to say that the last one year has been bumpy. Don’t forget that I said he took very bold measures from Day 1. He ended subsidy. He said we must harmonise our exchange rates and of course, this has affected the economy. This economy has been on crutches for ages and we needed someone to say, ‘Enough of all this feeding-bottle economy that we are running. Let us face the harsh truth’.
What the President has done is a wake-up call saying, ‘look, things are bad and if we continue on this path, we’re going to hell.’ So, he brought the country back from the brink instead of us continuing to slide down into serious problems.
When he found that some of his policies had unintended consequences, you can see the inventions he brought into play to bring succor to the vulnerable people in our country.
He announced various measures for the poor. He distributed free food to vulnerable people and gave wage awards to federal civil servants and the states followed. Even individuals followed in distributing palliatives, not just food but also cash to vulnerable members of society. He didn’t go out there to say ‘I want to inflict pain on Nigerians. But he did what was necessary. The people watching us from outside have said these are things that are necessary to drive Nigeria’s economy on the right path.
The Minister of Petroleum (Oil) told us that for 12 years, there was no single investment in the oil sector. Nobody wanted to invest in Nigeria because of our policies.
At a point, China which was ready to give us money for our rail began to hesitate about funding our rail because our financial outlook was very bad. It was getting clearer that the way we were borrowing money, we would not be able to pay. But today, because of the measures President Tinubu has taken, our credit rating has gone up. Foreign money is now coming into the country as of now and it is reflected in our stock market. A lot of companies even into a sector.
The minister at the ministerial briefing said Nigerians should expect about $15bn investment in oil alone, not gas. We’ve not had it for many years. But because of what President Tinubu has done trying to reinvent the business of oil and gas, to quicken the ease of business, it is now attracting new investments into the oil sector, especially the offshore oil sector. And also, the gas industry. Nigeria is less of a crude producer than gas. So the President softened the policies to attract investment. You can see that three gas plants were launched in Delta and Imo states. So many things are being unlocked by the policies of the present administration.
Are you saying if the President had not won in 2023, things would have been worse than what we have now?
If we had not had Tinubu in 2023, honestly, Nigeria would have been speeding down the path of destruction. Things were going bad before he came in. If we didn’t have somebody who had his experience, who managed a micro-Nigeria, in Lagos before, things would have gone bad. We were on the path of economic doom before he came in. He just came in and applied the brakes to ensure we didn’t fall over the edge. Nigerians should be grateful that we have somebody with his experience who came in at the right time to apply the brakes to save us from a possible economic doom.
What would you say about the inflation, killings in some states, and high unemployment rate?
Well, I don’t know which figure you are quoting, but according to the National Bureau of Statistics, our unemployment rate is less than 5 per cent going by the new rules that they have applied. In the past, people would say that the unemployment rate was 30 per cent. That is not the truth. The NBS has recalibrated, the way it measures unemployment, and at the last time I checked, the unemployment rate was below 5 per cent. But truth be told, there are people suffering underemployment. For instance, a well-trained graduate living off being a POS operator. Such a graduate may feel that they’ve not really gotten what they are looking for and may still be looking for a job much better than a POS operator.
For inflation, so many things caused inflation. Of course, we are still import-dependent. As the naira depreciated, the cost of importation increased and that was passed on to our people. The insecurity was also inherited. In 2023, Emefiele made Nigerians suffer with his new currency policy.
Many farmers especially from the north lost a lot of money. They started even giving out their products for free. I learned that a lot of them refused to go back to the farm because people didn’t have money to buy their products and it became a disincentive to farm. So, it reduced the available food, and because we also import food a lot, those things became expensive. Besides all that, we are paying more for petrol and diesel, logistical costs also increased and that also affected and cost of food in the market.
Don’t also forget those who were profiteering. Recently, I was in Ogbomosho, and I saw a basket full of mangoes for N800. I had to gift the seller N200 to make it N1000. But when I got to Abuja and Lagos, they were selling one mango for N300. So don’t forget the role of profiteers. I call them wicked Nigerians who get excited at punishing their fellow citizens. They were hoarding food so the prices could go up so they could sell it costlier. These are some of the causes.
The government is concerned and is doing all things possible to ease these challenges. The government is making efforts to get more food, giving our farmers more incentives to produce more food at a lower price. Even in the health sector, the government is engaging with pharmaceutical companies to assist them in reducing the cost of pharmaceuticals for our people.
How come Nigerians are not feeling the impact of the money from the removal of the fuel subsidy?
The federal state councils have been receiving more money since the subsidy was removed. Almost every month, over N1tn is being shared to all the tiers of government. That’s one of the benefits of subsidy. This government has really gone to work trying to see how we can improve our revenue collection and a lot of successes have been recorded in that regard.
More money is now being generated by the government. And this has helped in financing a lot of projects and the palliatives. So people who say we have not benefited from the subsidy removal don’t know what they are talking about.
And are you also surprised that some governors are not even paying the N30,000 minimum wage?
Let’s talk about the governors doing their duty. Nigerians have been misfocusing on the federal government as though it is the only government that exists. There are three tiers of government in our country and each has a responsibility to its constituency. The Federal Governement has no land. But the states, starting from the Federal Capital Territory and its local councils to the states and the governors, all have a duty. People should be asking questions; ‘Mr. Governor, how are you spending the allocation sent to you every month?’ If they (Governors) perform their role, if the local councils perform their role, people would even forget about whether the federal government exists or not.
We are not running a unitary government. We are running a federation. And each component of that federation has a duty to its immediate constituents. So the governors need to be more responsible. They have a duty to take care of their people first. That is their obligation? Take care of your people. Invest in roads, education and health. They should stop blaming the federal government all the time.
For every money this government generates, even if they said the FG collects 52 per cent, the bulk of this money goes to the states and local councils. Don’t forget the extra percentage for oil-producing states. So, at the end of the day, the FG does not collect up to 52 per cent. Even if we collect 52 per cent what are they doing with their 48 per cent? We need to really begin to ask them questions.
The governors need to make some structural adjustments. Not in the way Babangida did. They need to look at the structure of their states and find out find where are they wasting money. For instance, the government has surplus workers, whether at the local council, state, or federal level. Visit federal secretariats in Abuja, you’ll find people idling around. They are selling groundnuts, clothes, and shoes in the government office. So we need to address these things because they are pulling us back from developing when we have surplus labour and we keep plowing resources into servicing them and they don’t produce. Let us send some of these people to farms so they can earn some income for the state.
Is there hope that such governors will even pay the new minimum wage when approved?
First, I must say that the Labour Unions are asking for something very unrealistic. Initially, they wanted over N600,000. Who will pay that amount? How much does Joe Ajaero (NLC President) pay his staff? Which state or company in Nigeria can pay that amount? They brought it down, but they are not facing the reality. There’s a limit to what the government can pay. The government has duties not just to workers.
So, Labour needs to be reasonable. And try to understand what the government can pay. If the Federal Government says it would pay N100,000. I’m sure only very few states will be able to pay. They should be looking at wages that are reasonable and sustainable so that they won’t pay for one month and say, ‘Sorry, we can’t continue. We need to retrench.’ That will be another problem for this country.
What will the President tell Nigerians on May 29? Is there any assurance that things won’t be harder for Nigerians by this time next year?
Let me, on his behalf, assure Nigerians that things are going to be much better in the next 12 months. In the past year, this President has been busy laying the foundation for growth. In power, more plants are being built. The government is investing in solar energy, taking universities and hospitals out of the grid. We are working to increase the strength of our transmission. Kano just flagged off a mass housing plan in Kano. By next week, the President will flag off 12 centers for the treatment of cancer. These are just a few examples. By next week, we are going to see some CNG buses, and tricycles being made available. People are going to receive dividends of the government’s efforts in the last 12 months.
Are we expecting a cabinet reshuffle as Nigerians are yearning for the injection of fresh minds into the federal cabinet?
I’m not going to speculate on that. The president has not said he is going to reshuffle. Let me explain something. None of those ministers have spent one year in office. They came in last August. The president wants them to be accountable. That’s why he told them to come out and give their scorecards, to talk about what they have done in the last eight months. When you see what they have done, you cannot but give this Tinubu government, in its first year, a 7/10 for the various achievements that his ministers and, by extension, his government have achieved. I’m sure the president is giving them some time to either perform or ship out.
Does the president interact with his ministers and if he does, through what means?
Of course. This is a president whose ministers have access to him. They request to see him and they see him. That is why they do the Federal Executive Council meeting and bring their projects there. He listens to them and knows what everyone is doing through some other informal means. He has various sources. He keeps tabs on them. He knows what everybody is doing.
Even Nigerians are monitoring the ministers. Hadiza Bala-Usman, who handles Policy and Coordination has launched an app where Nigerians can monitor their ministers.
What will happen to those considered not doing well in the cabinet? Will they be kept, repeat the class, or be asked to leave?
President Tinubu has already told them they will go if they can’t perform. He told them at the retreat last year that the government has an eight-point agenda and expects the minister to deliver on it. So those who are found wanting would have to go. But as of today, the President has not made any decision on that.
