Football
Sky Sports writers and Sky Bet traders put forward their Euro 2024 winners; England tournament favourites with Sky Bet at 3/1; 9/2 Germany a very popular pick with our experts; Austria tipped as the dark horses at 80/1
Tuesday 4 June 2024 11:57, UK
Euro 2024 is around the corner, but who will win the tournament? Sky Sports football writers and Sky Bet’s traders give their verdicts…
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To win the European Championships, you need a manager with wisdom.
The age of manager and the success of a football team isn’t exactly an equation many use to try and find value in the betting markets, but there might be something in it when assessing the outright Euro 2024 market.
The average age of the manager in charge of the winning team at the last six Euros has been 59.5 years old.
Experience is vital. A tournament of this nature can throw so much at a coach in a short space of time and that life experience in big moments seems to help create a winning football team.
So, when assessing potential value to exploit in the outright market, managers north of that 59.5 figure came onto my radar, which led me to Ralf Rangnick and Austria.
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At 65 years old, the legendary figure in German football is quietly creating an exciting team for the Austrian public to get behind and I think they are being overlooked despite a tough group containing the Netherlands, France and Poland.
In Rangnick’s first game, Austria beat Croatia 3-0 away whilst qualification was assured comfortably behind Belgium, which included wins home and away over Sweden. Lately, Germany, Russia and Turkey have all been dispatched in their last three friendlies, to an aggregate score of 10-1 and Rangnick’s side have scored at least once in their last 15 games.
At 80/1 with Sky Bet, they are this year’s dark horses.
Since the tournament was expanded to 24 teams, the challenge of predicting a winner has become more difficult. The added knockout round means more uncertainty and even less onus on starting well when third in the group can be enough to progress.
Portugal did not even win a group game at Euro 2016 but still took home the trophy. The reigning champions Spain were fancied but were beaten by Italy who were beaten by Germany who were beaten by France. The hosts then duly lost to Portugal.
At Euro 2020, the Netherlands top scored in the group stage, winning every game before being beaten by the Czech Republic in the round of 16. This is a long-winded way of saying it will come down to knockout football – moments that decide matches.
Expect teams to set up to be solid defensively and rely on attacking talent to make the difference rather than the prescribed patterns of the club game. In the era of five substitutions, depth could be key. That would favour England, France and Portugal.
If Harry Kane can play seven games untroubled by back pain then England are worthy favourites. If not, it opens up for others. Home advantage could carry an improving Germany far under a smart coach. Expect Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala to star this summer.
England are often favourites on paper but less-favoured by fans, and understandably so: the men’s team have now gone more than half a decade without winning a tournament.
Anyone under the age of 57 years and 10 months old was not born when the national side last won a major trophy.
According to Opta, England head to Germany as favourites to win the competition.
They have a 96 per cent chance of reaching the round of 16, a 71 per cent chance of reaching the quarter-finals and a 48 per cent chance of reaching the semi-finals.
That’s where England are most likely to face the next most-favoured side, France, in what would be a rematch of England’s 2-1 defeat in the World Cup quarter-finals 18 months ago.
What are the Three Lions’ chances of progressing to the final? The supercomputer says 31 per cent – so a one-in-three chance of walking out at the Olympiastadion in Berlin on July 14.
All the way? A tasty 20 per cent chance of ending 58 years of hurt. Is football coming home? The majority of the 43m or so under-60s in England who have never witnessed such an event from the men’s team would probably disagree – but the stats back Gareth Southgate’s side.
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Portugal were drawn into Group F when they won the tournament in 2016 and December’s draw threw them in the same Group, this time alongside Czech Republic, Turkey and play-off winners Georgia. It means by the time the Selecao kickstart their campaign against the Czechs we should know a little bit more about the other 22 teams gunning for Euro 2024 glory in Germany.
And that’s important considering Portugal’s best potential pathway to Berlin will likely hinge on them topping Group F where they will meet a team that finishes third in Group A, B or C in the round of 16.
Goalkeepers: Diogo Costa (Porto), Jose Sa (Wolves), Rui Patricio (Roma).
Defenders: Antonio Silva (Benfica), Danilo Pereira (Paris Saint-Germain), Diogo Dalot (Manchester United), Goncalo Inacio (Sporting), Joao Cancelo (Barcelona), Nelson Semedo (Wolves), Nuno Mendes (Paris Saint-Germain), Pepe (Porto), Ruben Dias (Manchester City).
Midfielders: Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United), Joao Neves (Benfica), Joao Palhinha (Fulham), Otavio Monteiro (Al Nassr), Ruben Neves (Al Hilal), Vitinha (Paris Saint-Germain).
Forwards: Bernardo Silva (Manchester City), Cristiano Ronaldo (Al Nassr), Diogo Jota (Liverpool), Francisco Conceicao (Porto), Goncalo Ramos (Paris Saint-Germain), Joao Felix (Barcelona), Pedro Neto (Wolves), Rafael Leao (AC Milan).
Based on our betting odds, this will most likely be Hungary, Croatia or Serbia. If the Portuguese progress to the quarter-finals, they could be paired against the Dutch before a potential clash with Spain or Germany in the semis. All that would mean England or France in the final, the latter would see a repeat of the Euro 2016 showpiece which saw unlikely hero Eder give Portugal their first major international tournament success.
All of this bodes well for head coach Roberto Martinez as he bids to mould his squad into one that has all the answers come tournament time.
The Spaniard replaced long-term coach Fernando Santos and his first year in charge couldn’t have gone much better, ending 2023 unbeaten, winning all 10 of their qualifiers. While it would be folly to place too much emphasis on qualifying, they scored more goals than anyone else conceding the fewest. Much sterner tests most definitely lie in wait in Germany but Martinez, Ronaldo and co might just be up to it.
Let’s start by ruling a nation out: Spain. Head coach Luis de la Fuente has gone with a youthful squad that includes Barcelona teenagers Lamine Yamal and Pau Cubarsi.
But he’s also chosen Jesus Navas as an option at right-back over Tottenham’s Pedro Porro while Marc Cucurella has also been included. I don’t see that defence as strong enough to replicate the successes of 2008 and 2012.
If this pick was based on form, you would also overlook Germany given how they have been in turmoil in the past year, but Julian Nagelsmann is a very good coach and really ought to still be in charge of Bayern Munich.
At Euro 2020, the winners were the best-coached team, and that can be the case again.
Given their host status and long history in the tournament, Germany have as good a chance as anyone. And then, there is Toni Kroos, who has come out of international retirement for one last dance.
Kroos is my favourite player of the modern era. I still own a version of the Adidas boots he has worn since 2013 and he can bring the curtain down on a glittering career with yet another winners’ medal.
“I saw a picture where he was bidding farewell with the 48,000 trophies on it,” said Nagelsmann, having lost count. “It would close a wonderful picture book of a great career.”
Three years on from the round of 16 exit to England, Kroos can paint another picture. His class can light the path to Die Mannschaft‘s fourth European Championship.
This England squad is different than Gareth Southgate’s previous editions and not just because it’s more popular.
This Three Lions side has more goals than ever before. In Harry Kane, Ollie Watkins, Phil Foden and Cole Palmer, you have four forwards right at the top of their game. The reality is all four cannot start together, so there are plenty of world-class options off the bench.
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There is a difference in the midfield too. Safe options such as Kalvin Phillips and Mason Mount are no more. In Kobbie Mainoo, Trent Alexander-Arnold, the underrated Conor Gallagher and possibly Adam Wharton too, Gareth Southgate has multiple options waiting to break out on the international stage.
Speaking of Southgate, his conservative style in tournaments will help even a defence in crisis. No matter who has turned out at the back in his three major tournaments to date, one thing you cannot say is they lacked solidity.
Host nations Germany this, France that. No country will have a better 26-player squad, nor a bigger desire to get over the line, than this England team.
Germany’s prospects for winning Euro 2024 are exceedingly bright.
Currently, they are third favourites at 9/2 – brought in from 5/1 last week. Previous international tournaments have been far from impressive for Germany, with group-stage exits in each of the last two World Cups and a loss to England in the Round of 16 at Euro 2020. These recent setbacks for the German national team will be something they look to avoid this year.
The appointment of Julian Nagelsmann as the new manager will play a large part in why Germany has a great opportunity to win Euro 2024. Known for his adaptable tactical approach, Nagelsmann brings a fresh perspective to the German side. His emphasis on high-intensity pressing, quick transitions, and fluid attacking play aligns perfectly with the strengths of the current squad. The blend of seasoned veterans and emerging talents forms the core strength of this team. Experienced players such as Ilkay Gundogan and Toni Kroos provide leadership and stability.
A recent addition to the midfield, Robert Andrich, with his ball-winning abilities, is key to bringing out the best in Kroos.
These veterans not only perform under pressure but also mentor the younger players, fostering a balanced and cohesive team environment.
Complementing this experience is a wave of new talent, with players like Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala standing out.
Wirtz’s creativity and technical skills add a new dimension to Germany’s attack, while Musiala’s dribbling and versatility make him a formidable presence in attack. This blend of youth and experience creates a dynamic and unpredictable team capable of adapting to various game scenarios. Finally, the advantage of hosting the tournament cannot be understated. Playing on home soil provides Germany with the support of local fans, creating an electrifying atmosphere that can help boost player morale and performance.
There’s only one way this tournament ends, and that’s with France lifting the trophy for a record-equalling third time.
Les Bleus are a powerhouse when it matters most. Since taking charge 12 years ago, Didier Deschamps has won the World Cup and Nations League and reached the finals of Euro 2016 and the 2022 World Cup. The 55-year-old has the experience, knowledge, and tactical flexibility to deliver in the big moments.
Deschamps could well be the decisive factor, but there’s another reason why it’s almost impossible to look past his side. While the attacking firepower of Kylian Mbappe, Antoine Griezmann and co. will generate excitement, it’s France’s defence that could be the difference-maker in Germany.
With the impressive Mike Maignan between the sticks, William Saliba, Ibrahima Konate, Jules Kounde, Dayot Upamecano, Jonathan Clauss, Benjamin Pavard, Theo Hernandez and Ferland Mendy are formidable options at the back. Between them, they conceded just three goals in qualifying. Their defensive cohort is among the best in the world but often overlooked.
Just 18 months ago, Deschamps’ team were a penalty shootout away from becoming the first country since Brazil in 1962 to defend their World Cup crown. They are a wounded animal and that spells danger for any opposition.
Netherlands, Austria and Poland await France in Group D. It’s not a straightforward path to the knockout stage, but arguably the perfect way to prepare for it. Once they are there, expect them to go all the way.
Things seem to have fallen into place at the right time for Germany. A few months ago, Julian Nagelsmann’s focus appeared to be on which club job he would be taking after the tournament, while his team had just lost against Turkey and Austria.
But Nagelsmann has now committed his future to the national team after stumbling on a formula that led to wins over fellow Euros contenders France and the Netherlands in March, while Toni Kross has returned from international retirement for one last hurrah.
The fact the tournament is on home soil plays into Germany’s hands – as does retaining Nagelsmann, who can provide a vital point of difference. Amid a fairly mediocre pool, Germany may have the best manager at the Euros.
Germany can also tick off another must for any team wanting to win a major international tournament – a strong midfield.
Kroos and Ilkay Gundogan provide an outstanding base, allowing Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala to create in the final third. Throw in Manuel Neuer, Antonio Rudiger and Kai Havertz, and Germany have an extremely strong spine running through their team.
Granted, backing a side that hasn’t won a knockout match for eight years is a gamble – but the stars may have aligned for Nagelsmann and his team.
It may be an incredible eight years – yes, eight years – since Germany last won a knockout game in a major tournament, but with the hosts for once going somewhat under the radar heading into this summer’s European championship, do not be surprised to see Julian Nagelsmann’s team holding aloft the Henri Delaunay trophy in Berlin’s Olympiastadion on July 14.
Understandably, belief back home in Die Mannschaft was at an all-time low after shock friendly defeats to Turkey and Austria in November, but those doubts have slowly started to give way to optimism on the back of morale-boosting wins over Netherlands and tournament favourites France in March.
Backed by what is sure to be fervent home support, Germany have the right blend of much-needed experience in the form of Manuel Neuer, Joshua Kimmich, Antonio Rudiger, Ilkay Gundogan, Toni Kroos and Thomas Muller, combined with exciting, but less experienced players such as Florian Wirtz, Robert Andrich, Jonathan Tah and Maximilian Mittelstadt.
And as we saw when they last hosted a tournament back in 2006 – and has often been the case over the years – the hosts always perform well in front of their own fans.
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