Premier League predictions: Chelsea to continue European surge at Nottingham Forest – Sky Sports
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Football Journalist
Friday 10 May 2024 15:16, UK
Our tipster Jones Knows provides his betting insight and analysis across the penultimate weekend of the Premier League.
Fulham, like many teams, have a horrific record against Manchester City, losing the last 15 matches in all competitions to an aggregate score of 55-7. But they haven’t helped themselves in recent seasons by conceding a penalty in each of the last seven fixtures with Pep Guardiola’s team – a wacky statistic that is hard to attach any logic to, yet one that could tempt a few punters into taking the 11/10 with Sky Bet for a penalty to be awarded in the match.
There’s the right man in the middle for such an occurrence as Anthony Taylor has awarded more penalties this season than any other referee in the Premier League (13) while only West Ham (10), Everton (8), Man Utd and Sheffield Utd (both 7) have conceded more spot-kicks than Fulham (6).
In a turgid betting heat due to City being such overwhelming favourites, the penalty shout might be the answer.
Matthew Donohue takes charge of his first Premier League game here – and I’m always keen to back a cards angle when a referee steps into this environment for the first time. Ryan Christie to be carded is where my money will be going at 13/2 with Sky Bet. The tenacious Scot has become the destroyer for Andoni Iraola – if a player is there to be tackled, Christie will tackle him.
This is leading to a high foul tendency developing in his game, something which was on full show in the defeat to Arsenal last weekend where he was lucky to escape a red card for a foul on Bukayo Saka before eventually being carded later in the game. He’s now made 23 fouls in his last 12 starts and has been shown a yellow in six of his last 22 appearances. His price is simply too big.
I’m always inclined to oppose cards when it comes to dead-rubber, end of season encounters. And this game fits the bill.
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This could head down the path of being a very drifty game where Everton get in front and stay there with relative ease owing to their fantastic defensive record.
And the amount of cards shown per game this season is on the decline. In the first 18 matchdays of the season there were 46.5 cards shown per matchday as referees were keen on clamping down on time-wasting and dissent.
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However, over the last five matchdays there have been just 32.2 cards per matchday with just two red cards being shown in those 60 matches. So that’s a drop of about 1.4 cards per game.
Sheffield United’s games have taken a sharp downturn on average cards shown in recent weeks. There’s only been four yellows and one red shown in their last four Premier League fixtures, with no cards shown in their away day at Newcastle. I’m happy to play for a repeat of that to happen here by playing the “no card” option in the first player carded market landed at 12/1 with Sky Bet.
Newcastle are a force at St James’ Park, scoring in all 18 home games this season and winning 11 of the last 16 Premier League games in front of their home fans.
But you’d need to be a braver punter than me to be taking 4/7 with Sky Bet on a home win, especially when you factor in how impressive Brighton were when dispatching Aston Villa last weekend. They restricted Unai Emery’s team to just two shots and created a whopping expected goals figure of 2.53. It was their first win in seven games and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see them back up that level of performance. The 11/4 on Brighton draw no bet is worth an interest.
Burnley will be relegated if they fail to win this game or if Nottingham Forest beat Chelsea in the 5.30pm kick-off.
A goals-based bet has to be the angle for anyone looking to get involved here, although you’ve got to be smart to find value with the traditional markets like over 2.5 goals trading at 1/5 with Sky Bet. Madness.
We want a goals bet that is a backable price – and that’s the 2/1 for both teams to score in the first half.
Spurs have had big issues in starting games with any sort of conviction this season and they have conceded at least one first-half goal in 13 of their last 15 Premier League matches. In total, Spurs have conceded 29 first half goals in their 35 games – only four teams have conceded more.
Luton, Forest, Everton and Burnley have all managed to score before the break against Tottenham this season. The goals could flow at either end from an early stage.
Luton have to go big or go home. They will be relegated if Nottingham Forest better their result.
A big performance is required as West Ham are actually quite hard to beat at home, losing just two of their last 19 games across all competitions, and the atmosphere at the London Stadium will be more serene now the fans know what the situation is with David Moyes. They’ll be giving him a good send-off.
The outright market looks a volatile one with it easy to make a case for any of the three outcomes, so I’m going to go back to an old favourite bet of mine for this season. Luton corners.
There was a spell in January where Luton won 72 corners in nine games – so an average of eight per game – and luckily we were on most of those attractive lines at the time. Like their overall form, their corner count has suffered of late but with the returning Elijah Adebayo adding more threat in attack, they should give this fixture a good go.
When a team need to win, their corner count can see a huge spike and Luton play to win corners by working the wing backs into advanced areas and sending balls into the box. West Ham defend deep under Moyes so will be vulnerable to Luton’s ability to win corners – as seen in the reverse fixture where Luton won nine.
They are 5/6 with Sky Bet to win five or more here and that looks a fantastic bet to play.
Not broke? Don’t fix it then. That’s my theory on backing Michael Olise to play a leading role for Crystal Palace.
That result against Manchester United had been brewing for a while under Oliver Glasner, who is pushing Olise to the forefront of his attacking strategy. The boss is encouraging his attacking players to play more centrally with the width being provided by the full-backs. That is making Olise a huge threat in the final third in really dangerous areas.
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He usually plays wide but he is playing more within the goalposts and has now scored seven goals in his last seven starts. During that run he’s also registered 33 shots with 16 of them hitting the target. That’s a whopping average of 2.2 shots on target per 90 minutes. When assessing Sky Bet’s prices it’s the shot on target numbers for Olise that make the most sense from a value perspective here as we can grab 2/1 for him to have two or more shots on target in a game Palace are also fancied to win.
Permutations are going to be very important here for those having a bet as Nottingham Forest will know what they need to do after Luton and Burnley play at 3pm. If Luton lose at West Ham and Burnley fail to win at Tottenham – then Forest would be all but safe going into kick-off due to their superior goal difference over Luton. I can see that scenario happening.
If that is the case, then I want to get involved with Chelsea to win to nil here at 7/2 with Sky Bet.
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Chelsea haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last 14 Premier League away games – it’s the worst run without an away clean sheet in the Premier League for 30 years. However, there have been signs in the last two games that the defence is becoming more of a cohesive unit. They haven’t conceded a goal for 230 minutes, keeping back-to-back clean sheets at home against two dangerous attacks in Tottenham and West Ham.
Trevoh Chalobah is making a case to be Chelsea’s most important and probably best defender. Chelsea go from conceding 1.6 goals per game without him to conceding just 1.1 with him starting – over a 24 game sample size. He’s a seriously underrated player.
An away clean sheet is going to drop soon enough for Mauricio Pochettino’s much improved side, who have taken 23 points from the last 36 available. Away win.
Arsenal to win to nil away from home is becoming a real comfort blanket of a bet. It’s simple but is yielding fantastic returns. The Gunners, since the start of last season, are working at a 57 per cent win to nil ratio away from home in the Premier League. My maths make an Arsenal win to nil about an even-money shot yet we’re getting 15/8 with Sky Bet here, so it has to come under consideration.
This phenomenal defence has now conceded just two goals in the last seven Premier League matches away from home and has conceded a per-90 average of just 0.67-worth of expected goals across the last 16 Premier League games. It’s a remarkable number.
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I think the only way Manchester United can get something out of this game is if it becomes almost too easy for Arsenal.
Erik ten Hag’s men are good at that, being so bad in a game that it lures the opposition into a false sense of security – as happened in their fixtures against Liverpool – and then in a 10-minute period United’s big-game players come to the party and the opposition aren’t mentally prepared.
Mikel Arteta is all about control though, so won’t allow his business-like side take their eyes off the prize. Arteta will be heading there with his first priority being a clean sheet – if Arsenal achieve that, they win the game. The under 3.5 goals line at 4/5 with Sky Bet is the standout play at the prices.
Liverpool look a great bet here.
Villa will be drained from their trip to Greece on Thursday where they were bitterly disappointing, and Unai Emery has really struggled to contain Jurgen Klopp’s teams in the past. Since beating Liverpool in the 2016 Europa League Final with Sevilla, Emery is winless in nine matches vs Klopp, conceding three or more goals in six of those nine matches, including in the reverse fixture this season that Liverpool won 3-0, and the game at Villa Park last season that ended 3-1 to Liverpool.
Villa have spent 153 nights in the Premier League top four this season so probably deserve their Champions League qualification on that basis, but they are limping over the line. They are becoming a very easy team to score against.
Over the last 15 Premier League games, they’ve averaged a per-90 expected goals against figure of 1.91 which is the fourth worst in the Premier League – even worse than Sheffield United. When assessing their big chance conceded data it gets worse – in the last 15 games only Luton have offered up more “big chances” as defined by Opta – that’s 42 in 15 games to an average of 2.8 per game.
And Liverpool are the kings of creating those big chances – no team have created more this season than their 95.
Backing Liverpool to win and over 2.5 goals at 11/10 with Sky Bet looks a winner in waiting.
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