Premier League predictions: Bournemouth to end Arsenal's title challenge ahead of Man City vs Wolves on Saturday Night Football – Sky Sports
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Football Journalist
Friday 3 May 2024 20:17, UK
Our tipster Jones Knows provides his betting insight and analysis across the Premier League card, where he thinks Bournemouth will end Arsenal’s title challenge.
Gary Neville thinks Arsenal will remain perfect across their last three games.
He said on the Gary Neville Podcast after watching Arsenal beat Tottenham 3-2: “I think they will achieve a 100 per cent record. The one doubt is the Old Trafford game.”
I couldn’t disagree more. If there is an Arsenal wobble coming, it’s more likely to come here than against Manchester United. To put it simply, Bournemouth are a better side than United.
I’ve spent most of the season watching the Cherries let me down when playing a top-five side. In nine fixtures, they have taken just one point, losing eight games to an aggregate score of 28-6. Ouch.
But I still believe this style of football under Andoni Iraola can beat the big boys. And I simply must back them here at a gigantic price. They are 12/1 with Sky Bet for the away win which is ludicrous for a team that have taken 42 points from their last 25 games. It’s the fifth-best return of any Premier League side.
Granted, my timeline is going to be full of after-timing Arsenal fans taking huge pleasure in proving me wrong when their side win 5-0, but I can’t let Bournemouth go unbacked at those odds.
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This has become a free-scoring fixture in the past two seasons with 13 goals scored in the last three meetings between these two, who do have a bit of history from a Championship play-off final that Fulham won in 2020. With both teams safely cuddled up in mid-table this could descend into another goal-fest – although the market does foresee that with over 2.5 goals a likely winner but woefully short at 4/7 with Sky Bet.
With an end-to-end nature expected, I’m happy to head to the total offsides market where four or more offsides looks to have a great chance at 10/11 with Sky Bet. Fulham have caught the opposition offside 90 times this season – the fourth highest in the Premier League – and when assessing the match-ups of these two teams, previous meetings have pointed to an avalanche of offsides. There’s been 19 total match offsides in the last three games meaning an average of 6.3 per 90 minutes. The assistant referee will hopefully be very busy.
Burnley’s job over the next two games is to keep Nottingham Forest within two points. If they do that then the final-day showdown between the pair at Turf Moor could be a relegation shootout. That would be great fun.
The market is skewed far too in favour of Newcastle here in a game Burnley will be competitive in. The Toon are Evens with Sky Bet for the away win. No thanks.
Vincent Kompany’s men have only lost one of their last eight Premier League games, taking 11 points during that run. It’s kept them alive and kicking. Now they need to turn those draws into wins.
Those that like to play the cards market should be encouraged to take advantage of some fancy prices in the player card options, especially with Anthony Taylor in charge. He’s been dishing out cards like confetti this season – a whopping 120 in 24 matches, which makes him the strictest referee on the Premier League circuit.
Sean Longstaff (13/2 with Sky Bet) and Elliot Anderson (11/2 with Sky Bet) were both booked in the recent 1-0 defeat at Fulham and do look overpriced to go in again.
Can we expect any sort of reaction from Sheffield United now their relegation has been confirmed? Perhaps a freedom to express themselves? Probably not.
On the last 12 occasions a team that has played a Premier League game with a relegation confirmed, they have failed to win, losing nine of those matches to an aggregate scoreline of 35-11.
Games don’t come more winnable than this for Nottingham Forest, who are 8/13 with Sky Bet to pick up maximum points. Can they deal with the pressure and expectation? I wouldn’t be trusting them at those odds although they are of course the more likely winners.
I’d rather take more of a punt and back Morgan Gibbs-White to score in the game at 11/4 with Sky Bet. A player of his ability really needs to be stepping up in games where the pressure to deliver is on. He is also their designated penalty taker and surely one spot-kick is going to drop their way sooner or later.
Manchester City are in title-winning robot mode. Having almost a week to prepare for this one is a huge factor and they are 1/11 with Sky Bet for the win for good reason.
I do think Wolves are overpriced to score though at 6/5 with Sky Bet, especially now Hwang Hee-Chan and Matheus Cunha are fit and will give them a very explosive outlet on the counter-attack.
Wolves have been significantly stronger with both in the team. The win rate leaps from 26 per cent to 50 per cent when both start and the average goals per game increased from 1.1 to 1.6.
City have conceded in 32 of 44 games in the Premier League and Champions League this season – that’s a 73 per cent strike rate for the opposition scoring.
That figure probably should be higher too as the two clean sheets they kept in the wins over Nottingham Forest and Chelsea came against the backdrop of some bulky expected goals against numbers. Chelsea failed to score from 1.4 and Forest managed to create 1.93 without finding the net.
Wolves can punish similar levels of generosity.
Aston Villa’s Ezri Konsa is the most fouled defender in the Premier League this season. His 59 fouls won in his 32 games played in the Premier League this season puts him top of the tree for fouls won by defenders and his per-90 haul of 1.88 has him ranked fifth for defenders for that particular metric.
He has an extraordinary ability to draw fouls off the opposition when in possession. Unai Emery encourages his players to be brave and bold on the ball and Konsa has taken note.
If anything, his numbers are on the rise, too. He’s won 24 fouls in his last nine games.
With Konsa likely to play through the middle on Sunday, it seems sensible to try and profit from his direct opposition in terms of their foul count. In this case that player is Danny Welbeck, who is 15/8 with Sky Bet to make two or more fouls.
West Ham can be a team with a throw-in-the-towel mentality, especially when playing away from home. There was the 5-0 at Fulham and the recent 5-2 capitulation at Crystal Palace.
This makes their opposition very appealing across the handicap markets.
The Hammers have kept just one clean sheet in their last 21 Premier League away games? Can you guess where? A 2-0 away at Arsenal. That’s bonkers.
Their overall defensive metrics since the turn of the year remain horrendous. They’ve conceded the third-most goals of any team in their last 16 Premier League games (35) and their expected goals against per-90 figure is 2.1, which is the second worst of any team for that period – behind only Luton.
Chelsea have lost only one of their last 18 home games in all competitions, scoring 52 goals. They are becoming a reliable team playing with great confidence in forward areas. They could run riot here. Chelsea to win by three or more goals at 4/1 with Sky Bet is a runner.
This could head down the path of being like an exhibition, friendly-like encounter. The probabilities are very high that Liverpool are going to finish third and Tottenham are going to finish fifth. The goals should flow in a backdrop of what might be a game that produces a low card count considering the lack of jeopardy on the line.
And the amount of cards shown per game are on the decline. In the first 18 matchdays of the season there were 46.5 cards shown per matchday as referees were keen on clamping down on time-wasting and dissent.
However, over the last five matchdays there have been just 32.2 cards per matchday with just one red card being shown in those 50 matches. So that’s a drop of about 1.4 cards per game.
There were no cards shown at all in two Premier League games last weekend, in Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City and Newcastle vs Sheffield United meaning the “no card” option in the first player carded market landed at big odds. It’s got a chance of going in again here at 28/1 with Sky Bet.
This is the worst Manchester United side in Premier League history, isn’t it?
Crystal Palace are favourites to win at Selhurst Park which tells you all you need to know about where the markets rate this United side, whose 12 league defeats this season is the most United have ever lost in a single Premier League campaign. I’m happy to back that number to become 13.
Oliver Glasner has got Palace running and pressing more while also encouraging his attacking players to play much more centrally. Michael Olise – who usually likes to get chalk on his boots – is playing more within the goalposts as seen by his poachers-like goal in the hammering of West Ham.
There is so much pace, power and intelligence in that area of the pitch from Palace and Harry Maguire and Casemiro could be seeing stars for the majority of this encounter trying to stop the likes of Olise. The 100/30 with Sky Bet on the Palace star to score in a home win looks a cracking bet to consider.
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