Arsenal, Manchester City or Liverpool? Three-way Premier League title race analysed – Sky Sports
Football
Three points and a game in hand divide Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool in the Premier League table; Liverpool title chances plummet after 2-0 defeat to Everton; Gunners last won league title 20 years ago; Premier League run-in and club stats analysed
Friday 26 April 2024 09:35, UK
Three points and a game in hand divide title-tussling Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool – but what are the clubs’ chances of claiming the crown?
Manchester City cruised to a 4-0 win over Brighton on Thursday to leapfrog Liverpool into second spot and move within one point of table-topping Arsenal with one game in hand.
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The Gunners had extended their lead at the Premier League summit with an emphatic 5-0 win over Chelsea on Tuesday, having reclaimed top spot with a 2-0 win over Wolves at the weekend.
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Liverpool, meanwhile, spurned the opportunity to keep pace with their rivals after suffering a 2-0 defeat against Everton at Goodison Park on Wednesday.
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Speaking after the game, Jamie Carragher declared the Reds’ title tilt over. “This is the end of the title run for Liverpool,” he said. “It almost feels like the end. They just have to make sure they finish the season strongly.
“They had enough chances in the game but at the moment they are not clinical enough in both boxes. I don’t think you can get too angry with the team or Jurgen Klopp. It’s been a great ride and a great journey.”
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Pep Guardiola’s juggernauts, therefore, have the title in their hands: five successive wins would guarantee an unprecedented fourth consecutive league title. However, one wayward result could flip fortunes.
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The trio have been tussling since January after Spurs and Aston Villa dropped out of the top three. You can hit play on the interactive table below to see how the table has changed throughout the campaign.
If things did go to the wire with points, Arsenal currently lead the battle for goal difference by some distance with +56, followed by Manchester City (+48) and Liverpool (+41).
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As it stands, City are the form side among the challengers with an average return of 2.6 points per game over their previous five league outings, compared to Arsenal (2.4) and Liverpool (1.4).
The next chapter of the title race sees Liverpool travel to West Ham on Saturday before Super Sunday delivers Tottenham vs Arsenal and Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest.
So, how do the teams’ chances fare and has Liverpool’s title challenge ended?
ARSENAL
Reasons to be optimistic
Arsenal suffered a dip over the festive period, losing three in five games, but have bounced back to almost perfect levels since with 12 wins and one draw from 14 games – with an aggregate scoreline of 45-6. Indeed, Arsenal have netted a league-topping 82 goals this term.
Additionally, the best defence usually wins titles and the Gunners have that this season.
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Mikel Arteta’s side have conceded just 26 goals this season – six fewer than other team. Meanwhile, their expected goals conceded tally is equally impressive at just 24.41 – seven fewer than any other team.
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Arsenal have also kept a table-topping 16 clean sheets – five more than any other team.
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As a result, David Raya has shipped just 0.75 goals per 90 minutes on average this season, which, factoring stoppers that have clocked 810 minutes or more, is the best ratio across England’s top four leagues.
Reasons to be cautious
Arsenal’s players do not have the same level of trophy-winning experience as their rivals. Additionally, last season’s capitulation hangs over them. Having surrendered such a healthy lead over City, when it felt like they might never get a better chance, they now have much to prove.
MAN CITY
Reasons to be optimistic
City drew three in a row from mid-November before losing 1-0 at Aston Villa. However, Guardiola’s side are now unbeaten in normal time since December 6 as they look to see out the campaign in customary, dominant form.
Guardiola’s players know exactly what it takes to get over the line as they chase an unprecedented fourth consecutive title triumph.
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Their strength in depth is unrivalled, allowing them to plough on even without players of the calibre of Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland for extended periods earlier in the season.
Reasons to be cautious
The fact no side has won four league titles in a row is the main one. Amid stiff competition from Liverpool and Arsenal, can they maintain the level required for a fourth consecutive season? There is a reason it has never been done before.
The other glimmer of hope for their rivals is they look more defensively vulnerable than in previous campaigns. Having shipped 32 goals in 33 games, they are conceding close to their highest rate under Guardiola, almost on a par with the 2016/17 campaign, when they finished third.
LIVERPOOL
Reasons to be optimistic
In terms of form, Liverpool have been the most consistent throughout the campaign – never dropping points in more than two consecutive Premier League games.
Reasons to be cautious
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They have conceded only 34 goals but the underlying numbers show they give their opponents far better chances than their rivals, with 40.57 expected goals against (xGa) given up so far, compared to Arsenal’s 24.41 and City’s 31.44.
The graphic below shows each team’s upcoming Premier League fixtures, but which side has the easiest schedule?
The colours represent the difficulty of each opponent, based on the current league position.
Liverpool’s average opponent ranks seventh in the table, which is notably tougher than Arsenal’s (9.3) and Manchester City’s (11.0) run-in.
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City are favourites to win the title with a 71.7 per cent chance, according to Opta’s supercomputer.
Arsenal’s chances sit at 26.6 per cent, while Liverpool are now the underdogs with a probability of just 1.7 per cent.
So, there remains a 28.3 per cent chance City fail to retain their crown.
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