Premier League predictions: Jordan Pickford to star in Merseyside derby draw as Everton host Liverpool – Sky Sports
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Football Journalist
Tuesday 23 April 2024 22:40, UK
Jones Knows is back with a bonus midweek Premier League predictions as he hunts out the value across the betting markets.
Bournemouth are becoming the latest team to latch on to where offsides against are concerned. First it was Aston Villa’s offside lines that were soaked in value on a weekly basis and then Tottenham’s. Both of those punting avenues are long gone now with the bookmakers cottoning on to their high lines.
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They’ve yet to really react to Bournemouth’s though who have caught the opposition offside 13 times in their last five matches as Andoni Iraola’s gameplan to press high is leaving space for the opposition to run into past their defence. It’s leading to a healthy return of offsides.
The Wolves offside line is set at two or more at 10/11 with Sky Bet which looks achievable based on Bournemouth’s recent averages – as does Hwang Hee-Chan’s price to be caught offside at 11/8. The South Korean has been flagged 10 times in 18 starts this season including in the reverse fixture between these two teams.
Newcastle’s games this season have been responsible for the most goals scored and conceded combined (121) and they head to Crystal Palace having scored in their last 14 Premier League games. They’re in for a proper game too based on Palace’s absolute dismantling of West Ham where the Eagles played arguably some of the best football I’ve ever seen a Crystal Palace team play.
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The front three of Eberechi Eze, Jean-Phillipe Mateta and Michael Olise, playing much more centrally under Oliver Glasner, could have something exciting developing. With their tails up, this looks a game where goals are likely to flow at both ends. Since February 23 only Cole Palmer has scored more Premier League goals than Mateta (6) and Alexander Isak (7) meaning we have two in-form frontmen capable of finishing chances that drop their way.
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It was therefore quite surprising to see as big as 4/5 with Sky Bet on the prospect of both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals. The 9/2 on both Isak and Mateta scoring in the match could also be a winner in waiting.
Analysing matches of this nature where there is such extra spice due to the derby factor is an occasion where I like to put a lot of weight on past trends from previous meetings. Form doesn’t go out of the window entirely but a Merseyside derby at Goodison Park especially is a unique fixture. And Jurgen Klopp knows this.
Everton are going to drag this game down into an ugly, low-scoring, avenue and rightly so, it’s worked quite well for them in past meetings where they’ve managed to draw with Liverpool in nine of the last 13 games at Goodison. The draw is overpriced at 19/5 with Sky Bet.
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If Everton are to frustrate their rivals then Jordan Pickford is likely to play a central role in the game. He made eight saves in this fixture last season.
Liverpool’s lack of clinical finishing in front of goal is seeing a spike in the number of saves made by an opposition goalkeeper with that number at 5.5 saves per game across the last 11 matches. Sky Bet have Pickford priced up at 6/5 to make five or more saves in the match and I think that is a huge runner in a game that may just suit Everton’s style under Sean Dyche.
Sheffield United could be in for a few goals at Old Trafford if they continue to play with the same level of threat and slick combinations they showed in their defeat at Burnley.
They were very unlucky not to score more than one goal in that 4-1 defeat that looks horrendous from a result perspective but the underlying metrics in attack showed that the Blades created lots of chances. They even won the expected goals battle in that defeat, creating 2.43 expected goals to Burnley’s 2.18.
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Any wayward or poor focus from Manchester United could be seized upon by Chris Wilder’s men who can play with freedom and the handbrake off. I’m hoping that playing at Old Trafford might just keep enough of their players interested to put on a performance. It could be the last time some of the Blades players get to play at this famous stadium with the Championship on the horizon.
Gustavo Hamer isn’t one of those players – he’ll surely be snapped up by a Premier League club in the summer as he’s shown lots of quality this season without getting much help from his team-mates. In his last six games, Hamer has had 11 shots, five on them hitting the target and two of them finding the net, taking his tally to the season to five goals. He looks a massive price with Sky Bet to score first at 22/1 and anytime at 7/1.
We have an exciting dynamic to this title race now where Manchester City are in full control of their destiny but also are having to play the task of being the chaser.
This should be a routine win considering Brighton’s problems in front of goal.
If you remove Sheffield United from their results, Roberto De Zerbi’s team have scored just 14 goals in their last 16 games across all competitions. A City win to nil is a runner at 7/4 with Sky Bet.
Brighton are having trouble scoring but their style of football remains exciting to watch.
This possession-based style where they draw an opponent on does lead to Brighton players being fouled with 12.4 being drawn per 90 minutes since January 1. Only Luton have a higher fouls drawn average in the Premier League.
This has triggered my interest in Kevin de Bruyne’s foul committed lines against the Brighton midfield. De Bruyne has made two fouls in each of his last three matches as he’s played a little deeper to support Rodri in midfield and he’ll be tasked with engaging Brighton’s Carlos Baleba, who is a foul-winning machine. He’s drawn 15 fouls in his last six starts, including winning four in the defeat at Liverpool and five in Brighton’s last game with Burnley.
De Bruyne is 8/11 with Sky Bet to make at least one foul which surely lands and the 11/4 for him to make two or more fouls is bound to go close too.
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