Premier League predictions: Bournemouth to do double over Man Utd, Tottenham defeat at Newcastle – Sky Sports
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Football Journalist
Friday 12 April 2024 18:50, UK
Jones Knows takes aim at another exciting Premier League weekend, offering up his insight and betting analysis as he sees more misery for Manchester United.
St James’ Park remains a fortress.
Since the start of last season in 35 domestic Premier League games against teams that aren’t Liverpool, Arsenal or Man City – Newcastle have lost just once. On that basis the Evens available on the draw-no-bet with Sky Bet makes sense here.
Tottenham might be on their way to becoming a Liverpool, Arsenal or Man City but they’re certainly not there yet and remain quite flaky and untrustworthy out of possession. Newcastle have only lost just two of their last 10 matches, taking 18 points and would be fifth in a league table over that period. Eddie Howe deserves credit for steadying the ship.
Alexander Isak owes me a goal.
He cost us the 13/2 best bet treble last weekend after the other two legs won. But this looks a great spot for him with Evens on offer with Sky Bet for him to score anytime. Spurs (81%) and Newcastle (71%) sit first and third when it comes to percentage of their Premier League games going over 2.5 goals – so a goals-based bet has to be considered. Isak is that play.
He’s scored 10 goals in his last 14 appearances and his goals per 90 rate is the fourth best of any player in the Premier League at 0.70. In a goal heavy game, he can get in on the act.
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Isak to score vs Spurs, under 2.5 goals in Burnley vs Brighton & BTTS in Liverpool vs Crystal Palace
Chris Wilder has found a formula to make Sheffield United competitive. It revolves around playing Ben Brereton-Diaz and Oli McBurnie as the battering rams. They have lost just once in their last four Premier League games – and that was at Liverpool – scoring eight goals in the process.
Brentford are in a false position in the Premier League based on their performance numbers but just one win in 12 Premier League games does make this a pressure game for them where expectation is high. The Blades did win the first meeting this season 1-0 at Bramall Lane and are playing with enough of a threat to make their quotes of 15/8 with Sky Bet for them to avoid defeat look quite attractive.
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Fouls conceded against the Blades from opposition centre backs is a trend that I’ve jumped on with Brereton-Diaz and McBurnie a real hardcore front two. They have drawn 13 fouls between them in those four matches with centre-backs being responsible for nine of those fouls.
Mathias Jorgensen, or Zanka, has made at least one foul in his last seven games so could get lured into some rough stuff with the Blades front two. He’s 5/2 with Sky Bet to commit two or more fouls.
Despite the Premier League goal rush, I just won’t forgive myself if I don’t take a strong view on the prices available for under goals here. We’re dealing with two of the worst attacks in the Premier League since December – that’s a healthy sample size of 19 matches.
If you take out matches against Sheffield United since December, Burnley have scored 17 goals in 18 matches – 0.94 goals per game while if you remove Sheffield United from the equation again, Brighton have scored just 13 goals in their last 15 games across all competitions.
In those 15 games they’ve scored more than one goal in a game just twice – in wins over Crystal Palace and Stoke in the FA Cup. The markets are expecting almost three goals in this game which makes no sense to me.
The under 2.5 goals line at 6/5 with Sky Bet is one of the best plays on the weekend card.
Also, nine of Brighton’s 31 Premier League games this season have ended 0-0 or 1-1 – that’s 21 per cent strike rate.
Splitting your stakes on the 0-0 at 14/1 with Sky Bet and 1-1 at 6/1 could be a profitable strategy.
The prices surrounding Luton to score are begging to be backed. There is Evens with Sky Bet on offer on Rob Edwards’ side finding the net, something they’ve achieved in 19 of their last 20 Premier League games, only failing on that front away at Arsenal. And let’s not forget, even Manchester City haven’t scored against the Gunners in the Premier League this season.
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City have conceded 31 Premier League goals this season already having conceded just 33 in the whole of last season and 26 in whole of the 21/22 campaign. It’s a defence that has looked more susceptible to counter-attacks this season and Luton have already scored three goals in the two previous meetings this season.
Ross Barkley’s prices are also worth a second look. He leads the way for Luton this season for shots per 90 (2.48) with a recent record of hitting the target seven times in his last five matches. He is encouraged to join attacks from his central area. That makes the 2/1 on offer with Sky Bet for him to register at least one shot on target look appealing – as does the 9/1 about his anytime goalscorer chances.
Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool to score over 5.5 first half goals between them!
If the raw numbers are anything to go by, then a draw looks the obvious starting point here at 5/2 with Sky Bet.
Nottingham Forest have won 15 points from 15 Premier League games under Nuno Espirito Santo and the last three meetings between these two clubs in all competitions have ended 1-1. If it looks like a draw, quacks like a draw, then it’s probably a draw.
A potentially profitable betting angle to exploit revolves around cards being shown to Wolves players defending down the Forest right flank.
Anthony Elanga and Neco Williams are direct dribblers, who do have a strong ratio for drawing fouls that leads to cards.
Elanga has drawn a yellow card off an opponent every 343 minutes since joining Nottingham Forest while Williams is drawing one every 401 minutes. This double whammy of attacking trickery could leave Toti – the left-sided defender in the Wolves back three – very vulnerable to a card. He has been booked in three of his last five starts, so the 3/1 with Sky Bet could be a slice of value.
Erik ten Hag is a member to the ‘results only matter’ crew, isn’t he? Despite the disjointed football that allows so much traffic towards their goal, Ten Hag has no interest in ripping up his unsustainable blueprint.
Being a defender at Manchester United is hard work. You are kept very busy. In their last six fixtures, United have faced a total of 162 shots – that’s 27 per game, had to defend 68 corners – that’s 11.3 per game and have conceded a per-game average of 2.86 worth of expected goals.
When using Opta’s expected points model which assesses key expected goals for and against data to quantify the expected points gained, in results since December 1, Manchester United would be 17th in the Premier League.
And, interestingly, Bournemouth are fourth in that particular table.
Ten Hag’s side will continue on their quest of being the best ‘moments’ team in Premier League history – they are fantastic at that.
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Whether that’ll be enough of a game-plan to beat a thoroughly well-drilled and expertly coached side in Bournemouth is doubtful. Andoni Iraola’s team are rightly boasting the favourites tag to win at 29/20 with Sky Bet.
The Bournemouth simply shots line has to be of interest based on United’s recent numbers. Since December 1, United have faced an average of 20.11 shots per 90, therefore the home side to register 20 or more shots at 5/4 with Sky Bet looks worth considering.
Any opportunity we get to back both teams to score around Evens should be gobbled up this season in the Premier League. It’s a bet that has landed in 62.9 per cent of games – a huge increase on the average from the last five seasons of 50.66 as the goal rush in this league continues to flow at never-before-seen levels.
Well, the price is 5/6 with Sky Bet here and looks a confident selection.
Why Liverpool’s title hopes could hinge on Jota
Liverpool have allowed the opposition to score at least one goal in 15 of their last 18 matches across all competitions and looked like the Liverpool of last season on Thursday night in their mind-boggling 3-0 defeat to Atalanta.
If their midfield structure crumbles in similar fashion, then Crystal Palace’s attacking players do possess enough quality to punish them. Jean-Philippe Mateta is thriving under the new boss, scoring five goals in his last nine Premier League appearances while the dynamic duo of Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise could be reunited in a Palace starting XI for the first time in 11 Premier League games. They can find a way to goal.
Fulham have won once away from home in their last 15 Premier League games – a 2-1 win over Manchester United in February.
It’s a dismal run of results that included trips to Burnley, Sheffield United, Nottingham Forest and Wolves. On what we’ve seen in recent weeks West Ham are a better functioning outfit than any other those four so it actually makes their win price of 11/8 with Sky Bet look quite generous.
Further confidence can be taken in a home win as Lucas Paqueta is guaranteed to start following his booking in Leverkusen that rules him out of Thursday’s second leg.
As we’ve referenced before, when he plays, West Ham’s attacking output thrives. Since the start of last season, West Ham average 1.6 goals per game with him in the team and 0.6 without while their points-per-game ratio increases from 0.6 to 1.6 per game with the Brazilian in the starting XI.
After bagging penalty duty off James Ward-Prowse in the win over Wolves, his prices in the goalscorer markets make appeal with 100/30 with Sky Bet on offer for him to score. That’s a nice angle but a juicier way to get a Paqueta masterclass onside would be to back him to score or assist in a West Ham win at 11/4 using the Bet Builder with Sky Bet.
With Bayern Munich on the horizon, Arsenal may want this match done and dusted by half-time. Since returning from their Dubai winter break, Arsenal have been synonymous with fast starts. They have scored 20 goals in their 11 first halves – that’s seven more goals than any other team – and that statistic is backed up by their expected goals figure in first halves (14.78) which is also the most of any team for that period.
Aston Villa aren’t expected to put up much resistance with Arsenal priced up at 1/5 by Sky Bet but adding that first-half goals angle into the mix to boost the price could be a way to play this. You can get to 4/5 if you back Arsenal/Arsenal in the half-time/full-time market. This game may play out like Arsenal’s recent win over Luton, where they roared into a 2-0 first-half lead before putting their cue on the rack to preserve energy.
Everton at 7/2 with Sky Bet? Yes please.
Sean Dyche’s team are everything Chelsea are not. Streetwise, defensively secure and reliable.
This match sets up perfectly tactically for Everton to sit deep and frustrate the hosts, who have had huge problems turning mass possession into results against the lesser likes. There’s an over reliance developing on Cole Palmer too, which is masking their problems – he’s scored or assisted 50 per cent of Chelsea’s Premier League goals since his debut.
Stop him and you stop Chelsea. Dyche will have a plan.
I’m advising going fishing for a big-price winner here too, with that Everton win price in mind.
With the Toffees desperate for points, adding Everton player cards to the Everton win makes sense with the likelihood of time wasting and cynical fouls very much at play in the latter stages.
Jordan Pickford (5/1 with Sky Bet) will be running down the clock at every opportunity. He was carded in wins over Arsenal and Bournemouth last season and has been booked three times this season. Also, James Tarkowski (3/1 with Sky Bet) has been looking more uncomfortable than usual in recent weeks when asked to engage with the opposition up the pitch, picking up a card for late challengers in his last three Premier League games.
Adding both players to be carded to an Everton win results in a 80/1 shot using the Bet Builder.
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