Chelsea vs Man United prediction, odds, expert football betting tips and best bets for Premier League match – Sporting News
Amidst lingering financial concerns, Chelsea look for a late push into the expanded European places as they host annual thorn Manchester United at Stamford Bridge on Thursday.
The Blues sit 11th in the Premier League table, which most seasons would make the run-in to the season merely a formality. Yet this season, with just a four-point gap to seventh and additional European qualifying spots likely to be afforded to the English top flight, the Blues can still harbour hope of snatching a spot if they make a late push down the stretch.
Chelsea will need to be nearly perfect across the final nine games to complete that charge, starting with this match against Man United, a club they surprisingly haven’t beaten in Premier League play in 12 straight games.
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Manchester United are in the opposite position, as they sit sixth in the table and face a nearly insurmountable eight-point gab between them and Spurs in fifth. As such, the Red Devils are largely left to look over their shoulder, with West Ham, Newcastle, Brighton, Wolves, and Chelsea all giving chase. While the Blues hope to catch those above them, United will spend the rest of the Premier League season fending off those behind them.
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A matchup between two of the Premier League’s most Jekyll and Hyde teams is one that remains exceedingly difficult to call. Both Chelsea and Manchester United, at various points this season, have looked vastly improved, only to see all the progress evaporate weeks — or sometimes days — later.
Such was the case in the last match for both these clubs — Chelsea twice coughed up a lead to 10-man Burnley in embarrassing fashion just weeks after promising wins over Newcastle and Leicester City, while Man United were battered by Brentford and lucky to draw 1-1 one match after an emotional win over Liverpool in the FA Cup.
Chelsea have not beaten Man United in an incredible 12 straight Premier League matches. While they should create enough chances to stop that skid, it’s all about finishing for the Blues, something they’ve been tragically poor at this whole entire season, but against a Man United side missing loads of defenders, this could be a chance.
The reasons these two clubs have been so inconsistent are what make this match so difficult — and simultaneously intriguing — to predict. Chelsea are creating chances in great volume, but finishing them off has been an enormous challenge. The Blues have created the fifth-highest expected goals in the Premier League this season, but have scored just 49 goals to their nearly 55 xG, owning the third-worst differential.
Manchester United, meanwhile, have no capacity to carry over their positive performances from one match to the next. It feels as if Erik ten Hag clears the cache after each match, and rolls the dice on which version of the club shows up next time out.
So what to do with all that? Combined total shots are the first thought, but the market is utterly flattened on that front, as oddsmakers see the combined 41 efforts taken in the reverse fixture causing the odds to bottom out. Chelsea’s team total for shots in the match is nearly 20, despite only taking 13 in the previous match.
Instead, Manchester United’s total is more palatable. The Red Devils racked up 28 against Chelsea the last time they met, and while that’s their season high by a wide margin, they have shown a regular propensity to have a go, even if the quality of effort is largely wasteful. United have matched or exceeded 14 shots in 15 of 29 games this season, including five of the last eight, with three of those being on the road.
Chelsea’s inability to not only finish chances this season, but finish games, has doomed them repeatedly over the last few months. Incredibly, if games concluded after the first 45 minutes, Chelsea would sit fifth in the Premier League table — in contrast, if matches included only the final 30 minutes, Chelsea would be 15th, and if they included just the final 15 minutes, they would be in the relegation zone.
Manchester United, meanwhile, have made up considerable ground at the end of games, and have done well to collect points from matches in which they largely don’t deserve them. The criticism of Erik ten Hag has been based on sheer results some, yes, but it’s been much more down to the eye test — they look awful even in games where they manage to grab a result.
Thus, the second half should be a fun one regardless of how the final score ends up. While Chelsea prove a threat throughout games, they have a lethal propensity to switch off as matches progress, and United will know how to take advantage even if they’ve been battered throughout.
This match between two struggling ‘big six’ Premier League clubs will be televised by NBC Sports in the United States on USA Network, which is available to stream on Fubo where new users can sign up for a FREE trial.
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In Canada, this match is available to stream on the country’s home for Premier League football, Fubo Canada. Every match of the 2023/24 season can be streamed on Fubo.
The match will be available to view on TV via TNT Sports 1, with steaming available on the channel’s platform discovery+.
Kyle Bonn is a soccer content producer for The Sporting News.
