Liverpool, Arsenal or Man City? Three-way Premier League title race analysed – Sky Sports
Football
One point divides Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City in the Premier League table; Mikel Arteta’s side have the toughest league run-in; Gunners last won league title 20 years ago; Premier League run-in and club stats analysed
Monday 11 March 2024 11:52, UK
Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City are divided by a single point in the Premier League table – but which team is most likely to take the crown come May?
Arsenal are the new Premier League leaders after Liverpool and Manchester played out a 1-1 draw following the Gunners’ 2-1 win over Brentford.
The title race – coined by Sky Sports’ Peter Drury as the “10-game season” – shows signs of going right to the wire on the final day of the season on Sunday May 19.
Read on as we take a look at each side’s title prospects, including pundit verdicts from Jamie Carragher and Roy Keane, and have a deep dive into the stats.
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Reasons to be confident
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Liverpool’s attacking firepower propelled them to the top of table but it couldn’t quite clinch victory over Manchester City. They will be hoping Mohamed Salah’s availability to start, having only come on as a substitute at Anfield on Sunday, allows them to return to their free-scoring ways in the months ahead.
There is encouragement at the other end of the pitch too, where Virgil van Dijk has returned to something approaching his best level, Caoimhin Kelleher continues to prove an able deputy to the injured Alisson and Andrew Robertson is fit again after four months out. Even teenagers Bobby Clark, Jayden Danns and James McConnell are contributing impressively.
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Could the announcement of Jurgen Klopp’s departure at the end of the season further boost their chances? Certainly, the emotion has enhanced the atmosphere at Anfield, with City fortunate to escape with a point on Sunday. Other sides might not be so lucky.
Reasons to be cautious
Klopp has worked wonders with Liverpool’s midfield, restructuring it almost from scratch after the departures of Jordan Henderson, Fabinho, James Milner and Naby Keita last summer. But they still lack a No 6 to rival Rodri or Declan Rice.
More injuries to Alisson and Thiago Alcantara limit their options further in those parts of the pitch and, despite Van Dijk’s fine form, there remain doubts in defence too, with Ibrahima Konate now sidelined once again in addition to long-term absentee Joel Matip.
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They have conceded only 26 goals, the second-fewest after Arsenal, but is the current rate sustainable? The underlying numbers show they give their opponents far better chances than City and Arsenal, with 34.82 expected goals against (xGa) given up so far, compared to City’s 27.57 and Arsenal’s 19.73.
Reasons to be confident
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How long have you got? Even after drawing at Anfield, Manchester City have the feel of a side clicking into gear, ready to blow the competition away in the second half of the season yet again. They are unbeaten since December 6.
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Guardiola’s players know exactly what it takes to get over the line as they chase an unprecedented fourth consecutive title triumph. They have recovered from far worse situations than the one they found themselves in earlier this season.
Their strength in depth is unrivalled, allowing them to plough on even without players of the calibre of Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland. Guardiola has in fact described both Phil Foden and Rodri as their “players of the season”.
Now that De Bruyne and Haaland are back, and the injury list is clear, they will remain confident of doing what they need to do to clinch the record title.
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Reasons to be cautious
The fact no side has won four league titles in a row is the main one. Amid stiff competition from Liverpool and Arsenal, and still juggling three competitions, can they maintain the level required for a fourth consecutive season? There is a reason it has never been done before.
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The other glimmer of hope for their rivals is that they look more defensively vulnerable than in previous campaigns. Having let in 28 goals in 28 games, they are conceding close to their highest rate under Guardiola, almost on a par with the 2016/17 campaign, when they finished third.
City have developed a habit of conceding from their opponents’ first shot on target, with last weekend’s Manchester derby being the latest example. There were more signs of defensive vulnerability in the number of chances they gave up against Liverpool on Sunday.
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Reasons to be confident
Arsenal appear to have been regarded as the unlikeliest of the three contenders, but titles are usually won by the best defence and the Gunners appear to have that this season. Their expected goals against total is unrivalled, reflecting their ability to suppress chances.
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Arsenal could not find a level of cutting edge to match their defensive prowess in the early months of the season but that appears to be changing. The performance against Brentford was not their best but they have rattled in 33 goals in their last eight league games. The floodgates have opened.
Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli certainly appear to be reaching top form, while improvement can also be seen in Martin Odegaard, Leandro Trossard and Kai Havertz. Gabriel Jesus, Thomas Partey and Fabio Vieira, meanwhile, have all returned from injury, with Jurrien Timber not far away.
Declan Rice’s impact has been immense in midfield and the group appear hungrier and mentally stronger than last season.
Reasons to be cautious
Last season’s capitulation hangs over them. Having surrendered such a healthy lead over City, when it felt like they might never get a better chance, they now have a lot to prove in terms of staying power. These players do not have the same level of trophy-winning experience as their rivals.
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For all Arsenal’s recent improvement offensively, there remain question marks in the No 9 position too. Jesus gives them many things, but he is not a prolific scorer. Could the lack of that out-and-out striker with a killer touch still cost them?
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Unlike Liverpool, who escaped with a draw from their own visit, Arsenal also have to go to the Etihad Stadium, a formidable test at a ground where they have a wretched record. Given the race could be decided by fine margins, defeat there could do severe damage.
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Sky Sports’ data editor Adam Smith:
Arsenal went top on Saturday for the first time since Christmas and stayed there courtesy of Liverpool’s 1-1 draw with Manchester City.
City are now 11 goals adrift from Arsenal on goal difference, while Liverpool trail the Gunners by seven.
In terms of form, Liverpool have been the most consistent – never dropping points in more than two consecutive Premier League games.
City drew three in a row from mid-November before losing 1-0 at Aston Villa. However, Guardiola’s side are now unbeaten since December 6 as they look to see out the campaign in customary, dominant form.
Arsenal suffered a dip over the festive period, losing three in five games, but have bounced back to perfect levels with eight successive wins – with an aggregate scoreline of 33-4.
The chart below reveals Saka’s form is crucial for the Gunners’ chances of pipping City and Liverpool to the post come May. Indeed, the England winger currently sits top of the Sky Sports Power Rankings season chart and is a leading contender to scoop the Premier League Player of the Season award.
The graphic below shows each team’s upcoming Premier League fixtures (and the most recent played), but which side has the easiest schedule?
The colours represent the difficulty of each opponent, based on current league position.
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Arsenal’s average opponent ranks 9.0 in the table, tougher than Liverpool (10.1) and Man City (9.8) average opponent ahead of the weekend.
So, what’s the verdict? Well, Arsenal have the toughest league schedule on paper – but could their momentum see them over the line.
Still unsure which team to back as Premier League champions when the curtain closes on May 19? You can use the interactive chart below to see how the rivals rank across all key metrics this season to help you decide…
Sky Sports’ Roy Keane:
“I can’t call it. Last year, I never had any doubt that Man City would win the title. I was strong on City a few weeks ago but I’m doubting that a little bit. Whenever you watch Liverpool, they’re performing, creating chances and scoring goals.
“I look at Arsenal and think physically they’re a much stronger team compared to last year. I don’t think they’ll fade on that side of it. Their recruitment and the players they’ve brought in has added strength and quality to them. I look at Arsenal’s mindset and they look ready for the challenge.
“I don’t know who to go with this year.”
Sky Sports’ Jamie Carragher:
“If you’re Arsenal today, you’re thinking this is the perfect result. Liverpool will be thinking the same in a couple of weeks time when City face Arsenal.
“Arsenal and Liverpool are both trying to chase down City. They’re the team to beat still. City drop points here and it feels like if they’re going to drop any more it’s going to be in the next three or four games.
“Even though Arsenal are top, from a Liverpool point of view I would rather see Arsenal go and win at the Etihad or a draw. Certainly not a City win because with City’s last five games of the season, you’d look at them and think they’ll get maximum points.
“If they don’t lose any more points in the next three or four games, they’ll be tough to stop.
“We can look at these fixtures, but it’s also what’s in between them. Liverpool are playing in the Europa League while Arsenal and City are in the Champions League.
“If Liverpool and Man City get to the FA Cup semi-finals, let’s see if they meet each other in that semi-final.
“That can take a lot out of you physically and psychologically. Then a league game has to be put in between so you play three league games in a week.
“From a Liverpool point of view, I’m hoping City and Arsenal meet each other in the quarter-finals of the Champions League because when you play an English team in Europe, there’s something extra about it which builds up and it takes it out of you.
“There’s so much more than what we’re look at in terms of the fixtures.”
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