Man United vs Luton Town prediction, odds, expert football betting tips and best bets for Premier League match – Sporting News
Two surging sides clash at Kenilworth Road as Manchester United look to continue their climb towards the Premier League top four against Luton Town on Sunday.
The Red Devils have triumphed in three consecutive league games and four overall, unbeaten in six straight as they are nearly within reach of fifth-placed Aston Villa, sitting five points back in sixth. An 86th minute winner from serial hero Scott McTominay saw them defeat Villa last time out, as United again played with fire late in the match.
It’s been a rocky road for Erik ten Hag this year, but a late-season push could see them secure European football again next year. They were bounced from the Champions League in the group stage, and thus need to qualify via table position if they wish to remain amongst the continental picture next season.
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Luton Town, meanwhile, soared out of the relegation zone thanks to a run of three wins and two draws through seven league matches, plus another two wins and a draw in recent FA Cup play. Defeat to Sheffield United last time out, however, represented a major step back that undid some of their hard work. The Hatters sit just a point above the drop as it stands, although they hold a game in hand as well.
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Luton Town are, quite simply, not the same team on the road as they are at the friendly confines of Kenilworth Road. The Hatters have been solid at home, boasting a nearly even goal differential of -2 in front of their fans, while they sport a much more dire -10 differential on the road.
Manchester United, meanwhile, are the same, which doesn’t bode well for them in this road trip. The Red Devils may have scored 15 goals and conceded the same total while away from Old Trafford, but their expected goals allowed is a dire 21.46 on the road, meaning they have been saved by poor finishing and great goalkeeping in those matches despite a strong dip in performance.
Meanwhile, United’s recent surge feels a bit like fools gold — they needed Scott McTominay to rescue them last time out against a slumping Aston Villa side, they scored their three goals against West Ham on just 0.75 xG worth of chances, and needed Kobbie Mainoo’s 97th minute winner to beat Wolves 4-3 on the road after coughing up a late equaliser themselves. This match could be where it comes apart a bit.
Both of these teams are far more open in the second half, and Luton Town will know they must keep a lid on things through the first 45 minutes if they are to secure points from this match.
Fascinatingly, despite all the negativity around Manchester United this season, they’ve been aces at holding a lead, managing to win 13 of the 15 Premier League matches in which they’ve gone in front at any point. It’s the games in which they must come from behind that have fed much of the pessimism around Old Trafford.
Unfortunately, that doesn’t play to Luton’s strengths. The Hatters are also a second-half team, with a brutal 11 goals scored to 15 conceded through the first 45 minutes, and while the differential actually gets worse after the break, the numbers both increase for the second half, scoring 22 but conceding 30.
The scoreline may have read 1-0 last time these two teams met, but that does not tell the full story. Victor Lindelof’s 59th minute goal was one of 15 shots from Manchester United worth a whopping 2.18 xG, as they battered Luton Town through the first half but couldn’t find the net.
Both these teams are in much better goal scoring form now than they were at that point of the season, so there should be plenty of goals in this one. Luton will consider themselves likely to find the net, knowing Man United can be broken down, conceding 23 shots to Aston Villa last time out worth 2.43 xG.
This match with a late Sunday kickoff will be broadcast in the United States by NBC on USA Network, which is available to stream on Fubo.
A Spanish-language broadcast is available in the U.S. as well on Telemundo, which is also available on Fubo.
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Fubo Canada is the official Premier League rights-holder in Canada, streaming every single match across the entire 2023/24 season.
In the UK, the match will be broadcast on Sky Sports channels, with streaming available on Sky GO as well.
Kyle Bonn is a soccer content producer for The Sporting News.
