Premier League predictions: Brentford set to sting Liverpool's title bid – Sky Sports

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Football Journalist
Saturday 17 February 2024 10:58, UK
Our tipster Jones Knows sprinkles his analysis and betting advice across an exciting Premier League weekend, tipping Liverpool to slip up at Brentford.
Run away as fast as you can from the 4/7 with Sky Bet on a Liverpool away win.
Brentford’s direct, to the point style always causes issues for the big boys at home, especially Liverpool. The Bees have found the net six times against Jurgen Klopp’s men in their two meetings at the Gtech, winning 3-1 and drawing 3-3.
BTTS & over 2.5 goals in Brentford vs Liverpool, BTTS 'no' in Forest vs West Ham & Luton to win more corners than Man Utd!
Liverpool may have only conceded 13 goals on the road – the second-best defensive record in the Premier League – but the underlying metrics point to an overachievement on that front. The chances they’ve shipped, using the expected goals against model, shows a result of 19.11 – an overperformance of six goals. That per 90 average of 1.59 expected goals against is only the fifth best in the Premier League – even Everton (1.54) sit above them on that front.
A regression could be on the horizon, so Brentford are capable of scoring twice, especially with their main man Ivan Toney back and amongst the goals.
Of course, it’s hard to keep the Liverpool attack quiet too – they’ve scored three or more goals in 11 of their last 24 Premier League games. Goals look on the menu so backing both teams to score and over 2.5 goals around 4/5 with Sky Bet looks a winner in waiting.
Burnley will be quaking in their boots at trying to stop the Arsenal set-piece machine. Vincent Kompany’s men are a shambles from such situations, shipping 12 goals and a league-high 11.16 worth of expected goals.
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Meanwhile, Arsenal have scored a league-high 16 goals from set-pieces, including netting twice in the 3-1 win over Burnley from corners. My colleague Sam Blitz broke down Arsenal’s set-piece prowess earlier this week – well worth a watch below.
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Declan Rice has become a key part of Arsenal’s strength from dead balls. Rice only took three corners in the first 20 Premier League games, but since then, he has taken 12 corners in four games and provided three assists from set-pieces, two of them coming against West Ham.
His inswinging deliveries from the left are usually on point. Burnley goalkeeper James Trafford has been exposed by such tactics this season under the high ball so I’m firmly expecting Rice to provide opportunities for William Saliba, who scored in the corresponding fixture, and the bulldozing Gabriel, who has scored four times in the Premier League this season.
Rice is 11/4 with Sky Bet for an assist whilst Saliba (9/1) and Gabriel (11/2) are both runners in the goalscorer markets.
For a best bet though I’m looking to combine both angles and would advise taking the 11/1 on Rice providing an assist for either Saliba or Gabriel.
Unai Emery is doing a magnificent job at Aston Villa. To get them firmly in the hunt for the Champions League considering some of the injuries they’ve been rocked with this season is worthy of praise. Boubacar Kamara is the latest long-term absentee now after suffering ‘significant’ knee damage against Manchester United, joining Ezri Konsa, Emi Buendia and Tyrone Mings in the treatment room, all of whom have knee injuries.
Emery has shown he can find solutions when key players are missing, so I’m not overly worried for them at Fulham.
One player that is fighting fit is John McGinn, who is set to start his 40th straight Premier League game.
He remains a driving force in the Villa midfield, a position that does allow him to venture into some dangerous attacking positions. A haul of five goals – his best ever Premier League return – showcases the attack-minded role he’s playing, as does his return of 11 shots on target in his last 10 Premier League games. Both the 9/2 with Sky Bet on him scoring and the 10/11 for him to have at least one shot on target are betting angles of note.
Bruno Guimaraes has always struck me as a player that would relish playing further forward – and we got to see it in action at Nottingham Forest last weekend.
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He’s looked a little rash and unmotivated this season in his role playing at the base of Newcastle’s three-man midfield but the switch to play him closer to the attackers and drop Lewis Miley into the holding role unleashed an exciting version of the Brazilian. He scored two fine goals at the City Ground, backing up his impressive performance towards the end of the 4-4 with Luton where he played with more freedom and registered an assist.
He made 18 runs into the box across those two games, which is more than he’s made in his last 14 games combined in the Premier League, highlighting his added attacking licence. All this equates to the 15/8 with Sky Bet available on Guimaraes either scoring or assisting a goal being a bet to keep on your radar.
When a David Moyes team gets walloped, a reaction is almost guaranteed. You just know the preparation all week on the training ground for this trip will have been about defensive shape. Drill after drill. Drill after drill. Drill after drill.
Those lads probably haven’t seen a football for seven days. It’s monotonous but it tends to work when assessing the evidence.
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On the three previous occasions his West Ham side have conceded five or more goals in a game, the very next game has seen West Ham win without conceding a goal. For that trend to continue you can get 9/2 with Sky Bet on a Hammers away win to nil.
Keeping along those lines, my eyes have been drawn to the 6/5 with Sky Bet on offer on ‘no’ in the both teams to score market which does seem generous when you factor in the likely ultra-defensive approach on show from West Ham. They won’t allow Forest to unleash many counter-attacks. It’s a bet that would have copped in nine of West Ham’s last 13 fixtures. I think it’ll go in again.
Tottenham might be 1/2 with Sky Bet to secure a top four finish but I’ve still got trust issues with them. Just one clean sheet in their last 15 Premier League games isn’t a great look and their overall defensive process when it comes to expected goals against (41.34) still has them ranked as the sixth worst in the league. Wolves are smart and streetwise enough to extend Tottenham’s run without a clean sheet and I can’t resist the 5/1 with Sky Bet on offer for Pedro Neto to score anytime.
His ability to move with great electricity with the ball is bound to expose Spurs in wide areas and no Premier League player is averaging more shots from fast breaks per 90 than Neto this season (0.65). In his last five game since returning from injury he’s posted 12 shots, six of them on target and scored two goals. With Matheus Cunha out, he’ll be tasked with the responsibility of leading the Wolves charge in forward areas and chances should fall his way against this type of opponent.
Just let this sink in: Chelsea made 420 passes in the first half against Crystal Palace and managed to register just one shot.
It was the poorest passes-to-shots ratio in the first half of a Premier League game since Opta started collating data in 2003. They improved their tempo after the break but it still took two injury-time goals to beat a Palace side without their four most influential players.
This strange, disjointed Chelsea team could be in for another rude awakening – like they suffered at Liverpool.
Everton showed how you restrict City, by defending as a unit showing exemplary and rigorous organisation. And they lost 2-0 despite almost being almost perfect defensively.
Chelsea don’t possess the defensive unity to survive any sort of onslaught as shown by conceding four goals to Wolves, Newcastle, Liverpool and City in the reverse fixture this season. Finding a way to boost the 1/3 with Sky Bet for a home win looks the play so adding City to be winning at half-time and full-time is how to get there at 10/11. In the last six seasons from February onwards, City have been winning at half-time in 69 per cent of their home fixtures meaning there’s an edge in that 10/11 price.
Sheffield United have conceded 10 goals in their last two home games – five of those to Brighton in the FA Cup. They have conceded goals at an unparalleled rate this season – their record currently stands at 60 conceded, the most by any team at this stage of a Premier League season. That average of 2.5 goals conceded per game means they are on course to concede 95 goals this season which would be a new Premier League record in a 38-game season.
But here’s the plot twist: I’m keen on them to get a result here at 11/8 with Sky Bet.
Brighton, who have kept just two clean sheets in the Premier League this season, are just too short. It’s now just four wins from their last 18 Premier League games and they’ve won just one of their last six Premier League games against teams starting the day in the relegation places, conceding 15 goals. There the 1-1 with the Blades amongst that run, too.
This isn’t the Brighton of last season where their attacking output was up there with Manchester City’s – it’s dropped like a stone and their defensive process is taking a hit too. Even in that 5-2 win over the Blades in the FA Cup, Brighton lost the non-penalty expected goals count 1.02 vs 2.28. I wouldn’t put you off the upset.
It’s very difficult to back against Manchester United in these types of matches when you consider their near-perfect record away from home against teams that finished in the bottom 11 places of the Premier League last season or are predicted to be there this season. Since the start of last season, they have taken 40 points from 48 available against such opposition and conceded just eight goals in those 16 matches.
It’s rarely pretty on the eye or convincing, though, meaning Luton are fancied to cause United problems with their unique style. We can profit from this by heading to the corner markets. Rob Edwards’ team look a fantastic bet to win more corners than United at a juicy 11/8 with Sky Bet.
Regular readers will know all about how the Luton corner lines have spiked recently to the extent that they’ve won more corners than the opposition in seven of their last eight matches across all competitions. The aggregate corner count over those fixtures reads Luton 64-29 Opposition. A pummelling.
United’s low corner count in away fixtures against bottom-half teams also offers further confidence behind a Luton corner win. In their last 15 matches against bottom-half teams on the road, United have won just four of the corner counts with the aggregate score reading Man Utd 64-88 Opposition. They’ve also only won six or more corners in just two of those 15 fixtures. The lines look all wrong, so there’s huge value to be had backing Luton to win the corner count.
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At the time of writing, there’s so many unknowns regarding Crystal Palace’s team news and managerial situation. That makes putting together a sensible and measured prediction almost impossible. If the likes of Marc Guehi, Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze are all out and the manager situation remains up in the air, Everton should be taking advantage at 7/10 with Sky Bet for the home win but if an announcement comes that ex-Eintracht Frankfurt boss Oliver Glasner taking over, as reported by Sky in Germany, then it changes everything. Unless the picture becomes clearer, I’ll be sitting it out.
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