Premier League predictions: Liverpool to end Arsenal title hopes on Super Sunday – Sky Sports
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Football Journalist
Saturday 3 February 2024 17:49, UK
Our tipster Jones Knows provides his betting insight and analysis across all Sunday’s Premier League games as he hunts some value in Sky Bet’s markets.
Nottingham Forest’s key to success under Nuno Espirito Santo will be how successful their counter-attacking game works, especially away from home as shown in their impressive win at Newcastle. That doesn’t bode well for them for this encounter though as they are up against a Bournemouth side that are notoriously hard to counter-attack. The Cherries have shipped just 1.38 worth of expected goals from fast breaks this season – it’s the third best record in the Premier League when it comes to that metric. Forest may struggle to cause problems.
Adding Dominic Solanke to score to a home win considering he’s found the net 10 times in last 11 appearances in all competitions makes sense at 6/4 with Sky Bet should provide punters with a good run.
I don’t want any part of the 4/7 with Sky Bet on a Chelsea win.
Can you trust them to get back on a positive footing following such a lacklustre and timid performance at Liverpool? I certainly can’t especially against a Wolves side that beat them 2-1 over the Christmas period.
Gary O’Neil’s side do carry a big threat in the final third to the extent they’ve scored 33 goals this season – that’s two more than they managed in the whole of last season. The three they got in their defeat to Manchester United makes it 18 goals scored in their last eight matches.
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Wolves’ goal threat isn’t really being respected by the market with Pedro Neto and Matheus Cunha both priced up at 4/1 to score. That looks generous in a game Wolves are capable of avoiding defeat in.
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West Ham are sixth in the Premier League and have lost just one of their last 11 Premier League games.
Yet there is clear discontent in the stands – for good reason too.
West Ham’s underlying performance metrics this season scream ‘overachievement’ loud and clear. Based on expected goals for and against, equated into points won, West Ham have 11 points more than their performance data shows. The addition of Kalvin Phillips has only provided David Moyes with more problems to contend with in terms of his balance in midfield.
I was expecting Manchester United to be shorter than the 3/5 with Sky Bet on offer considering their increased productivity in front of goal since Christmas, scoring 10 in their last four games and Rasmus Hojlund looking the part as the focal point. Home win.
Huge. A Super Sunday to savour.
A win for Liverpool may catapult them into title favourites with Sky Bet and would end Arsenal’s hopes of landing the main prize. Jurgen Klopp will know that. He’s not one to shirk such opportunities either. Liverpool will be Liverpool.
The jeopardy is huge for Arsenal, who are still to prove they possess the attacking metrics to mix it with Manchester City and Klopp’s men at the business end of this season. It looks a two-horse race to me.
What’s the bet then?
It must be a pro-Liverpool angle based on their attacking metrics of late, where they’ve averaged 22.5 shots per 90 minutes in their last 11 matches. And despite him letting us down for the 8/1 best bet treble in midweek, I’m keeping the faith with Curtis Jones and his shots prices. He’s had 22 shots in his last eight fixtures. The 2/1 with Sky Bet on him firing two or more does make plenty of appeal.
This won’t be a straightforward night for Pep Guardiola’s side but those taking them on at 4/11 with Sky Bet are likely to end up with burnt fingers such is their focus and supreme reliability at this time of year. City won 14 of 15 Premier League games between the 22nd-36th Premier League gameweeks last season. This is their time.
My punting instincts have taken me to the player fouls market where Ruben Dias rates as a fair wager to make two or more fouls at 100/30 with Sky Bet. The Brentford front two of Neal Maupay and Ivan Toney bring the nuisance factor to the table in that they are very smart at winning fouls.
Since being paired together in their last two fixtures, they’ve won 12 fouls between them. It’s a ratio that should stay consistent so it certainly brings Dias into the mix in terms of his foul probability. He’s made two or more fouls in seven of his last 13 starts, making 17 fouls in total. He will fight fire with fire up against the Brentford duo. He’s a big price.
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